THE BOTTOM IS IN. Allstate is seeing monstrous swings, intraday, day to day, week to week. Granted the broader market is doing the same but we've seen exaggerated moves on average to low volume in Allstate stock. Just when I reach maximum disappointment, we get a big green day.
From a technical standpoint, this could explode to the upside.
1)An end to hurricane season is upon us. This summer is the season for low Allstate share prices.
2)New 52 week lows for short covering before dividend payment becomes due for shorts to pay if they hold.
3)Industry-wide rate hikes.
4)The possibility of some European Band-Aid that has lifted financials.
There is nothing special that can be said about the performance of Allstate as an individual company. Anything can happen here to the up or down side. The price has been so low for acquiring shares under $23, that a sell off can occur at a seemignly ridiculously low price at any unexpected time. Just as well, we know that coming from $under $23 can cause a stronger short squeeze since it can seem possible that all of the four things above may all occur at once.
Those that got greedy and waited for the extra fat money last May and did not take profits, watched the price go down.
The price is too high to buy and too low to sell here IMO.
Between now and early May, find your price and gradually.... Sell
You are super correct that none of this is due to Allstate doing anything special. Their 3rd quarter numbers are sure to disappoint. One thing that I have not heard enough about from people, is the fact that Allstate is having a hard time finding places to invest their money to get a good return. That seems to be out of the equation. As they have maturing bonds and principal repayments, there are not good income producing places to put that cash (or premium dollars). Bottom line, Allstate is struggling on the investment side of the equation. Reinvestment risk. The share price will be lower soon enough.