1) The PERSISTENT revising of earnings expectations over the last 40 days -- specifically, Wall Street pundits kept REVISING their numbers lower until oohhHHH!!! magically, ALLSTATE "beats" the lower, REVISED numbers. Had the original expectations been left intact, ALLSTATE would have MISSED their numbers expectations...
2) Technical divergences indicate that this stock has been getting systematically distributed over the last two months by the big boys on the street.. advanced technical folks will confirm this for fact.
3) Hurricane season approaches. Things won't be so SHINY in another 60 days, and the street knows it... Those cats are leaving dumb money holding this bag -ALL- at the same time.
4) When not a single news article or opinion hits the wires that says sell, and not a SINGLE article addresses forward guidance in light of unknowns, and when every single "expert" says BUY, you better ----run---- for the exits.
For one thing, as usual Allstate loves to buy stock. For another, the expansion of area of covered by high pressure associated with the drought contributed to a near record low number of tornadoes occurring during one month in the quarter. The quarter was a slam dunk.
As for your outlook or mine going forward, let's discuss that later but not too much later.
I wonder you guys had the same opinion all along! We have been riding this darling from 14 steadily since the great depression. For me I am glad I held on. I will be holding till $45 which I expect by first Q,2013.