This won't be the only storm either. NOAH has predicted this year will have a much greater percentage of storms that reach the USA as hurricanes. Understanding this, it kind of explains to me why Wall Street analysts kept lowering their guidance for Allstate leading right up to earnings so that Allstate could "beat" the earnings expectations and therefor allow for a nice pump n' dump of the stock at a higher price before it tanks. Had the expectations been left as they were just one month PRIOR to this last earnings, Allstate would have missed, and the stock would have plunged.
EXAMINE THE UPGRADES, THE LOWERED GUIDANCE PRIOR TO EARNINGS, and of course, STORMS STORMS STORMS...
((( oh yeah, and the stock will sell off too -- that will be the smoking gun that verifies my opinion )))
I question the $9B number. ALL certainly doesn't have that much exposure to a Category 1 storm in LA/MS. They have been shedding policies and % deductibles are in place for what they have retained. The actual wind damage will be minimal. The biggest problem with a large, WET storm is ground saturation which weakens root systems of trees. Dwellings can be built to withstand wind, but not trees falling on them. Another large exposure is the flooding of vehicles which is covered by the basic policy with Comprehensive coverage.