doing tomorrow? Where do we think we are going? To 2s or 4s?
I am down huge on this speculative play.. Didn't expect this action today...Still searching for legit reason.
In Jag's 2011 annual report, the principal repayment of its unsecured Notes over the next 5 years are as follows:
2012: $22.8 million
2013: $9 million
2014. $165.2 million
2016: $103 million
Total: $301 million
Less: discounts of $ 49.2 million
Total Net Due:
Jag estimates it's Proven/Probable reserves are over 4 million gold oz. and it has only 84.4 million shs outstanding. Compared with other junior exploration companies imo it is looking good! Jag has 2 years to address the principal payment of $165.2 million in 2014.
I invested in Jag for the asset base and lack of dilution. I till fell the same Garupi project is a big or bigger than Ocampo or Minefinders Delores. It has over 2.5 million oz of gold and growing from the latest drill estimates. The Grades are similar to Ocampo and Delores about 1 gram per ton. Minefinders final valuation for the essential one min was over $1 billion when brought. Jaguar current valuation does not reflect the Gruipi project and bairly reflects their current operation. Short sellers are attempting to bring the stock down in hopes that Jaguar will have to finace the new mine with cheap shares. The board would be in serious trouble if there were offers and elected to instead dilute the shares of the shareholders. I ma also deeply disturbed to find the German is sitting on board of another gold company at the time of offers coming in and not removing himself. It has the apperarance of a conflict whether is or isn't.
It went sharply up yesterday on rumors of the Shandong trading halt, people thinking they were buying JAG. It went down today, because Shandong is buying another company, and all the longs headed for the door, thinking Shandong now will not be able to buy JAG.
The good news is that Shandong can buy ten JAG's if they wish. Like most companies of strategic importance in China, Shandong is government controlled. China is sitting on trillions of dollars of U.S. debt. They are smart enough to know that the U.S. has no credible debt reduction plan other than currency inflation. So if your China, you have a choice. Spend U.S. dollars now on hard assets such as gold and oil, or wait to get paid back in several years at about $.50 on the $1.00 (if your lucky). The Chinese government wants as much gold, oil, copper, assets, etc. that it can convince other countries to sell. That doesn't mean Shandong is ultimately the successful bidder in this case. I still think JAG would like to sell to Canadians or Americans to avoid regulatory hassles. However, if Shandong really wants JAG, money is litterally no object.
You don't sell tomorrow, because nothing changed from yesterday to today. A well organized group of pros planted a false rumor, induced panic today and caused a lot of naive capital and even some paniced pros to sell. Unless you are on margin or really need money in the next few days you hold and maybe buy some calls or sell some puts if the opportunity presents itself. This is an event driven stock. This is not a day trade. The price only becomes relevant if you sell. The only true statement put out today was the press release by JAG. Why do I think it is true? Because JAG, unlike Benzinga or Midnighttrader or the shadowy figure who planted the rumor will have the SEC and a pack of class action lawyers at their door if they issue a false press release. Congratulations, you just graduated from Market Manipulation 101. Class is free unless you sell. Then the tuition is very expensive.
Agree totally, although 10 million shares is a lot of shares. It appeared someone dumbed the stock and it caught some retail investors. My complaint is that board is taking way to long for the review and it leads to events like this.