Value Schmalu. The company (CEO/Board--whoever runs the show--my guess it's on autopilot, that's why they they mine through rock that has no gold) has repeatedly shown that they are incapable of running the company. Here are some things that are contrary to the "value play" 1. company has repeatedly fallen short of ore production estimates--VERY far short. 2. the company has repeatedly said they have just finished a quarter of restructuring / getting mining costs down. Result, the costs have skyrocketed. 3. The company has a potential debt load problem. The real risk now is bankruptcy.
"the real risk now is bkrptcy"-That risk seem's a little overblown right now in JAG august. Over the last several year's I heard the same board chatter in HL & GPL just to name two! BOTH have recovered substantially.
So let's keep the basic macro picture in prespective here. To start with shopping jag could not have come at a worse time, most miner's had already begun to drop, right along with a correction in Pm's themseves. What acquiring miner want's to play "let's make a deal" when their own stock is well off the high's, & diminished as a currency?
Second point-JAG'S BOD was not exactly giving the stock away @ $9+ considering the fundamental's!
Third point-Many of the miner's REGARDLESS of their fundamental's have recently been hitting 52wk low's, with the backdrop of a weak looking S&P.
So, is it really any suprise JAG is fooling around down here?
Bottom line-We started with a pretty lofty buyout price. Lot's of fast money jump's the gun & piles in looking for instant gradification, in the middle of a PM corection. Interested parties get cold feet over macro condition's & back off. Then the the fast money speculator's start to peel off, making the usual dire prediction's & excuses as they leave-------or decide to try the short side. It's not rocket science that the falling knife left a few folk's bleeding on the way down!
In reality it all has very little to do in deciding what the next direction is with JAG. Frankly, with all the global crisis unfolding GLD's next move could be up-a lot in fact, which could improve the general backdrop for miner's. Also remember from a tech. standpoint this slide has resulted in a VERY heavy OS condition where JAG is concerned. As another poster pointed out this new addition to the BOD is also a plus having a heavy background in investment banking. I also suspect their is enough inst. interest remaining that some more needed changes could be in the wind.
Honestly, I don't think we have seen the end game here by any stretch where an acquisition/offer is concerned. If there where "nibbler's" at 9, with a decent rise in PM's, a few decent & viable offer's @ the 5-6 level over the next few month's look's highly likely IMHO, especially with a little push from PM's themselves . At under a buck & half, even with some mis-step's by mngmnt. JAG look's CHEAP!