If JAG hits production and cash cost targets, cash will not be an issue. Of course with JAG's history, some would say that is a big if. However, it appears Andrews aired all the dirty laundry last quarter. At the current POG, if JAG comes anywhere close to the cash cost targets for the third and fourth quarter, JAG will have positive net income in both quarters. The current estimate for JAG is -$.05 for 3Q. The biggest drag on JAG is confidence, or lack thereof, in management. A substantial beat on income with positive cash flow and guidance would solve that issue and take care of cash/debt concerns at the same time. Conversely, if they miss again, with average POG for Q3 in the 1700's, look out below. 3Q results are huge for JAG.
The lack of confidence in MGT should be somewhat mitigated by the new CEO who by all accounts is the real deal though he's been quiet......its like finding out you have cancer....you don't go to the doctor, learn the bad news, and he whips out a scalpel and starts cutting.....there's more involved and with the new MGT, its the same, they've got to #$%$ and formulate the best strategy going forward.
Issuing more shares would be bad in the short term. Leveraging more debt would be better but hopefully they can skate by, crank out some production and begin the long climb back. Here's hoping....
The volume has been way down as compared to the days leading up to the Fed announcement. I wonder why because I would think after that announcement and the subsequent announcements by other countries, people would be buying and driving price up a little faster than what i am seeing.
Volume is down, because there is a wait and see additude for JAG. The concerned from investments house is whether JAG cash flow will drain toward zero forcing them to issue new shares at these low levels to survive before they can finish their cost cutting efforts and new mine plan. The reason why I brought more share is that I feel gold will stay above 1700, this will take pressure off JAG as cash flows at these high prices will improve cash reserves. This will give them time to implement their mine plan which will lower their breakeven costs. If Gold prices continue to accelerate, JAG price leverage to gold prices is higher than almost any producer, because of its past problems and high operating costs.
Added to my position. If gold stays at these levels JAG will be positive cash flow in the forth quarter without cutting back on its work force assuming no hickups in production. If expenses are cut as stated in their last conference that money saved will all flow into the bottom line. The issue of cash on hand and being forced to issue shares at really low price will fad.Jag will have more leverage in any negotiations for sales of assets. I am hoping they find a partner for Guripi project. I don ot want to see the company sold at these levels. Stock is way undervalued at todays gold prices. If gold goes to 2000 by the end of the year as some predict, at even these low production levels they have until they get the other mine in servive they will have net cash flows of over 30-40 million per year.