The appreciation of gold over the years is due to investment, it's a hedge against inflation and an alternative to fiat monies. The demand for gold as far as jewelry has been flat and probably declined over the last few years, bad economic times equals less discretionary spending. Also, inflation/devaluation of currency in recent years has been volatile. Population rates in the developed world is decreasing, there will be more deaths than births around 2025.
Given the factors of inflation in recent years below the historic 3%+, volatility in the markets/world steadying, population decline (demand for the yellow stuff), the bullish gold market over the last years, and production levels which will eclipse population growth in the next 10 years, I can see the argument for a bearish gold market for a few years.
And by your own admission, this is the peak of gold prices= GS will be bearish at the peak.
Meaning gold will feel downwards pressure and miners will feel the effects on the bottom line. As far as JAG, hold. It’s a turnaround story with a possible 30% downside in the next few quarters. But if they are able to execute on their plan, re-open their operation and control production costs there, I can see this being a $3-4 dollar stock in a couple years. Recent setbacks will give them unfavorable loans which will chip away at the bottom line for a few years until they are at full production and able to pay down the loans.
The recent pop in price doesn’t have the volume to remain there for long unless good news is received. My prediction is more cash burn in 4qrtr 2012, production cost reduction minimal q2q, financing in the works, few more quarters until they re-open (w/o a partner, w/ a partner w/I a couple qrtrs)
I’m a buyer in the .50’s and a seller here. If you’re lucky, I made a little money (20% in 3weeks) and you will make a lot of money.
I'm reluctant to agree, but I I have to.I'd be cautious to say it'd go over a dollar unless management delivers. So far they are but the numbers will still be bad. The only catalyst I see that will lift the stock price is financing which will help with the going concern. I'll be a buyer at .50 IF production costs are brought down. Gold prices are predicted to be flat for a couple years. We'll see what happens in the next few months. As for me, I'm cashing out with a 15% return but keeping JAG on my radar.