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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

  • h_grant_h h_grant_h Dec 21, 2010 2:08 PM Flag

    Target for 2011 - $15-16 range

    That's what the long term chart is telling me. It is a classic stretched flat bottom "bowl" pattern shaping up nicely.

    The first target should be $15-16. After that, we'll see the next move on the crack first.

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    • The unloading by big money players who got in under $5 are just started.

      It looks to me that those shorts from under $10 finally started to press on the short side and is working.

      Watch for $14 level, either today or tomorrow; if not, next week. That move can come very quickly.

    • The next real support is around $14. With the stock this overbought on wishful thinking, I expect $14 level to be thoroughly tested in the next few days/weeks.

      If my thinking is correct here, the company and the biggest stakeholders will be seeking to raise cash around $11-12 level at some point. And all those buyers/chasers above $12 will become bagholders after that.

    • Notice that VLO broke under 20-ma today. VLO is the leader in this small group of independent refiners.

      So, watch WNR to test 20-ma today.

      The most scary part, of course, is that the 50-ma level is too far down.

      "They" chased those stocks blindly and way too high.

    • Duh!

      Looks like my short setup started over 16.60 is paying off.

      I've played this game for too long. And history always repeated in the refining sector - when the oil price went through the roof, the consequence was ugly - demand were killed rapidly, and refiners crashed in the end.

      So, if the oil really goes into $120, WNR, TSO and other refiners with highest debt burdens will be in serious troubles. There won't be anyone to bail them out this time around.

    • Well, I can't believe "they" are chasing it like this. After all, this company carries extraordinary debt burdens.

      I shorted a few at $16.60. Not sure how this will play out. But I'd like to set up a hedged play, starting from the short side.

      Something tells me the company will be issuing massive new equity to address the debt situation.

    • Well, true to my target, I sold out all my position over $15.85.

      I have no idea how the rest of 2011 for this stock will play out. But my target was reached too fast to my surprise.

      It was a good surprise, and I didn't want to waste my good fortune.

      I'm sitting on my cash now with this one, and only take a few quick trades when opportunities present.

    • Im looking for that range too but it may not happen. History tells me it will though.

    • I sold half over $15 a moment ago.

      I'm cautious with with this incredible jump in such a short few days.

      My targeted range also forced me to take some profit, and asking question later. I probably could get back in between $12 - $13.

    • If my thinking is correct, the Wall Street is expecting that Egypt, in its financial desperation, will raise the fees charge through the Suez Canal, the only passage way to get the oil moving out.

      So, the gasoline price will skyrocket as a result.

      Boy o boy! The shorts are doomed.

    • OMG!

      It hit my target range already. I was bullish, but didn't expect this kind of move with super speed.

      This has become a rare scene in the recent memory with those refiners.

      This stock has far outperformed everyone else in the group.

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