Breaking out into Jan, over $11 first, probably into $12's.
At this point, it's all technical driven. The crack spread is due for a "super spike" in 2011. WNR will be in $15-16 before the driving season starts.
+++++++++++++++ In the last "super spike", WNR made the blunder in acquiring GI - only those older hands would remember that fiasco from the management. It has paid for its sin from that sickening crash from over $60 to under $5 in about two years.
But a new cycle is well on its way, and it will last into 2012.
Watch for that big short squeeze coming up, and it will be very swift and painful for those shorts - they're clueless about the cycles.
It just was not WNR management, but the entire sector crashed.
TSO went also from $65 to $6.75, VLO from $78 to $14, FTO from $50 to $7.
WNR problem, the Yorktown dinasour that is not even worth half what they paid for it and they aquired it through the assumption of massive debt. The other issue is the asphalt business. With new construction non-existant, the demand for shingles and all forms of asphalt products is hurting. This is another part of WNR business that will not pick up any time soon.
This is one interesting company and I do believe you are correct that if we break out above $10.62, and if so, the rest of the move will be driven on technicals and not fundamentals.
WNR is currently trading at a premium to book value ($7.70). Several other refiners are trading at a discount to book value (TSO $22.73).
IMO, WNR is fairly valued here and any run should be taken with caution until it breaks and holds $10.62.
Notice that VLO is already firmly breaking out into new highs.
HOC, TSO and FTO are also following closely.
So, how long do you think will take WNR to break out for good? Before the Christmas, or after?
It's only a matter of time - the train has already left the station, and it is charging hard into the bears - the shorts will be screaming in pains and their blood will run long and deep - they will be cut wide open, and they will die a horrible death.