That's what the long term chart is telling me. It is a classic stretched flat bottom "bowl" pattern shaping up nicely.
The first target should be $15-16. After that, we'll see the next move on the crack first.
Breaking out into Jan, over $11 first, probably into $12's.
At this point, it's all technical driven. The crack spread is due for a "super spike" in 2011. WNR will be in $15-16 before the driving season starts.
In the last "super spike", WNR made the blunder in acquiring GI - only those older hands would remember that fiasco from the management. It has paid for its sin from that sickening crash from over $60 to under $5 in about two years.
But a new cycle is well on its way, and it will last into 2012.
Watch for that big short squeeze coming up, and it will be very swift and painful for those shorts - they're clueless about the cycles.
It just was not WNR management, but the entire sector crashed.
TSO went also from $65 to $6.75, VLO from $78 to $14, FTO from $50 to $7.
WNR problem, the Yorktown dinasour that is not even worth half what they paid for it and they aquired it through the assumption of massive debt. The other issue is the asphalt business. With new construction non-existant, the demand for shingles and all forms of asphalt products is hurting. This is another part of WNR business that will not pick up any time soon.
This is one interesting company and I do believe you are correct that if we break out above $10.62, and if so, the rest of the move will be driven on technicals and not fundamentals.
WNR is currently trading at a premium to book value ($7.70). Several other refiners are trading at a discount to book value (TSO $22.73).
IMO, WNR is fairly valued here and any run should be taken with caution until it breaks and holds $10.62.
Notice that VLO is already firmly breaking out into new highs.
HOC, TSO and FTO are also following closely.
So, how long do you think will take WNR to break out for good? Before the Christmas, or after?
It's only a matter of time - the train has already left the station, and it is charging hard into the bears - the shorts will be screaming in pains and their blood will run long and deep - they will be cut wide open, and they will die a horrible death.
All of you fools should be buying SWHS instead. This is the road to nowhere. We are up 400% since September. Worth a look as this is a triple from here. Only telling this to my friends at WNR because I felt your pain when they caved in last time.
I sold half over $15 a moment ago.
I'm cautious with with this incredible jump in such a short few days.
My targeted range also forced me to take some profit, and asking question later. I probably could get back in between $12 - $13.
Yes sir, you hit it again (NOT), massive panic short covering today pushed WNR up nearly 1.9% or just about the same as every other independent refiner today.
Unfortunately, no one knows what price the majority of shorts are in at. Just like the longs, there could be shorts here from two years back and still not going to cover. There is not 1 person out there that knows even what the AVERAGE short price is of all short shares, so how do you know when they will start covering??? IMHO, it does not start until at least $12 and maybe not until $15.
Also, hopped back in Friday at $10.60 on strenghtening industry fundamentals, not on any "hoped for" short covering or whatever else folks invest in refiners for...
TSO share price peaked on 10/26/2007 closing at $64.48 and oil closed the same day at 91.73.
Difference: refiners on 10/26/2007 were running at 96 - 97% capacity, today they are running around 87%.
It is very different today. It is world demand and a lower dollar driving a higher oil prices, not US demand and the US consumer's demand for gas as it has been in the past...
OOPs, for full and total disclosure, I also had $393.25 in margin interest and $159.00 in commissions.
So I do have an additional expense of $552.25, so my actual profit was not $47,000 but $46,447.75 or 168.9% return on investment.
Just want to make sure the record is straight for this board.
Simply put those fake/amateur "analysts" of the message boards on ignore the minute you encounter them, if you don't have any solid background. It will serve you far better not reading those real "fools" - borrowed word.
Now, how long do you think the oil will stay above $90?
And with a $90 oil, the refiners are climbing fast. What will happen to them when the oil starts to descend to the normal range - around $75? And even more interestingly, what will happen when the oil drops under $70 sometime in 2011?
We may have a real "super spike" of the crack spread in the making already.
Can you imagine what will happen to those clueless shorts in deep red in those refiners?