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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

  • h_grant_h h_grant_h Dec 21, 2010 2:08 PM Flag

    Target for 2011 - $15-16 range

    That's what the long term chart is telling me. It is a classic stretched flat bottom "bowl" pattern shaping up nicely.

    The first target should be $15-16. After that, we'll see the next move on the crack first.

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    • Breaking out into Jan, over $11 first, probably into $12's.

      At this point, it's all technical driven. The crack spread is due for a "super spike" in 2011. WNR will be in $15-16 before the driving season starts.

      In the last "super spike", WNR made the blunder in acquiring GI - only those older hands would remember that fiasco from the management. It has paid for its sin from that sickening crash from over $60 to under $5 in about two years.

      But a new cycle is well on its way, and it will last into 2012.

      Watch for that big short squeeze coming up, and it will be very swift and painful for those shorts - they're clueless about the cycles.

      • 2 Replies to h_grant_h
      • It just was not WNR management, but the entire sector crashed.

        TSO went also from $65 to $6.75, VLO from $78 to $14, FTO from $50 to $7.

        WNR problem, the Yorktown dinasour that is not even worth half what they paid for it and they aquired it through the assumption of massive debt. The other issue is the asphalt business. With new construction non-existant, the demand for shingles and all forms of asphalt products is hurting. This is another part of WNR business that will not pick up any time soon.

        This is one interesting company and I do believe you are correct that if we break out above $10.62, and if so, the rest of the move will be driven on technicals and not fundamentals.

        WNR is currently trading at a premium to book value ($7.70). Several other refiners are trading at a discount to book value (TSO $22.73).

        IMO, WNR is fairly valued here and any run should be taken with caution until it breaks and holds $10.62.


      • Notice that VLO is already firmly breaking out into new highs.

        HOC, TSO and FTO are also following closely.

        So, how long do you think will take WNR to break out for good? Before the Christmas, or after?

        It's only a matter of time - the train has already left the station, and it is charging hard into the bears - the shorts will be screaming in pains and their blood will run long and deep - they will be cut wide open, and they will die a horrible death.

    • Total Idiot...

      Investing by the seat of your pants...


    • The only thing you exposed was how bad you smell and what a fool you are...

    • Yesterday I posted quickly simply stating I sold at $10.25 and made over 50%. Sorry for not being more accurate with details. I should have stated I made nearly 100% on the trade (share price appreciation).

      Facts: I made 85% on the share price appreciation and OVER 170% on my investment.

      Here is my trade: My avg buy price was $5.55 on 10K shares. 5,000 shares were purchased in cash ($27,500) and 5,000 shares on margin or borrowed funds ($27,500). Yesterday I sold all shares at $10.25 for a total profit of $47,000.

      Breakout of results: Total Investment of my assets $27,500. Total Profit from trade: $47,000. Total return on investment 170%.

      Now everyone can once again call me a liar...

      However that's okay, I know what is in my bank account...

      Now I will wait for a re-entry point.

      Sorry for the confusion.


    • OOPs, for full and total disclosure, I also had $393.25 in margin interest and $159.00 in commissions.

      So I do have an additional expense of $552.25, so my actual profit was not $47,000 but $46,447.75 or 168.9% return on investment.

      Just want to make sure the record is straight for this board.


    • Simply put those fake/amateur "analysts" of the message boards on ignore the minute you encounter them, if you don't have any solid background. It will serve you far better not reading those real "fools" - borrowed word.


      Now, how long do you think the oil will stay above $90?

      And with a $90 oil, the refiners are climbing fast. What will happen to them when the oil starts to descend to the normal range - around $75? And even more interestingly, what will happen when the oil drops under $70 sometime in 2011?

      We may have a real "super spike" of the crack spread in the making already.

      Can you imagine what will happen to those clueless shorts in deep red in those refiners?

    • World oil demand is predicted to increase "significantly" through 2015 as the US and world continue to emerge from recession.

      "Now, how long do you think the oil will stay above $90?"

      Oil prices will stay close to or above $90 from here on in, unless we dip back into recession.

      "And with a $90 oil, the refiners are climbing fast. What will happen to them when the oil starts to descend to the normal range - around $75? And even more interestingly, what will happen when the oil drops under $70 sometime in 2011?"

      The world will not see $70 oil again unless we go back into recession. IF that happens, gasoline demand drops and so do the refiners.

      IMO, oil goes higher as the US emerges SLOWLY from recession. The real key to gas demand is people going back to work. If the recovery continues as a "jobless recovery", gas demand will be slow to return and any chance of your "super spike" in crack spreads is non-existant. We were fortunate enough to see it once in our life times, and probably never again.

    • YOU orginally stated that you "made over 50% on my investment". Not share price but INVESTMENT.

      Now it's up to 170%.

      Wow, nice move.

    • "Not share price but INVESTMENT" ?

      smoke more of your MariJane and drink more of your spotted cow beer.

      What a jerk!


    • I agree. The poster is a real jerk - a very nasty one in fact. I always put them on ignore.


      I just noticed someone tried to sneak in a buy block of 109,000 shares at the close.

      Technically, the stock is ripe for a major breakout like what VLO did. I guess that's the main reason big buyers are lining up to the shallow dips. This is now setting up as a winner for the yearend and new year. The pop up moves will be forceful and wild due to the extraordinary short positions.

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