Don't expect much positive action on the 7 major refiners. ALL have 5-day smas pointing downward.This is the simplest T.A. indicator I know of. When the 5smas all start rising together...THEN BUY ANY OF THEM.In the meantime,sit on the sidelines.
And check out POINT-AND-FIGURE charts for good visual confirmation of my advice.
Ahmet, actually I think WNR is happy with a $7 Brent/WTI spread. I think this is a fair spread. Consider that the Cushing storage has dropped from 52 million barrels in January to it current level of 35 million for the week ending August 30th. Going forward, the southern Keystone XL is due to startup at 400,000 barrels/day by year's end and ramping up to 700,000 barrels/day by mid-2014. The big discounts to Brent are disappearing, at least for the next few years, until the northern keystone XL is completed. In fact, I can see the gulf refineries then overloading with WTI compared to sour crude which they need to run efficiently. That would benefit WNR.
WNR will make a profit in Q3, but nowhere near a year ago earnings. Their wholesale prices in the LA and LV areas should be doing extremely well. They do have the possibilty of an MLP offering coming up on their logistics. That could add a little excitement. But, bottom line, the hay days are behind us for the short term, major wars excluded.
Lee, actually the short position dropped by 1,8 million shares in the past reported month. From 21.2 million shares to 19.4 million shares. I've been following WNR for about three years and I believe this is the first time I've seen the short position under 20 million shares. Back in 2008 - 2010 it made some sense to short WNR because of the possibilty of BK. At this point, it makes no sense at all. The only thing the shorts have going is the 20 million shares in convertible bonds due in mid-2014. But, WNR has already repurchased 10 million shares to abate this dilusion. And, they continue to repurchase shares to further resolve the problem. It is a problem that dosen't showup at it's actual cost on any of the debt charts, but I think they are dealing with it seriously. All recent earnings reports are reported against the diluted shares.