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AMERCO Message Board

  • ZAnalyzer ZAnalyzer Nov 13, 2003 11:09 AM Flag

    Flipper, Do you think they've cleared

    all the hurdles (weren't there two major creditor goups left to settle before this announcemnet?) If they have everyone, I would think the stock would be moving back up quickly.

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    • Do you know which type(s) of notes the bondholders will get?

    • If you read the 10Q, then you will see real improvement in UHAUL's operations (not including insurance subs' operations):

      "Rental revenue was $863.2 million and $819.8 million for the six months ended September 30, 2003 and 2002. The change from the prior year primarily reflects increased equipment rental revenues which can be attributed to an increase in the average dollar per transaction and improved equipment utilization".

      and,

      "Operating expenses before inter-company eliminations were $533.8 million and $554.4 million for the six months ended September 30, 2003 and 2002."

      That is, UHAUL had about $43+ million more rental revenue for the first 6 months of the current fiscal year (than the first 6 months of last fiscal year). Yet it has $20+ million LESS operating expenses!

      The restatements of past few years affected the insurance sub RepWest, but not UHAUL. Also, the inclusion of MiniStorage (i.e. counting of its real estate depreciation) should continue this year and until 40 years after the buildings were purchased.

      In other words, CASH FLOW is much better than earning (as it recorded "FAKE" expenses = real estate depreciation expenses).

    • 2002 earnings restatement inflated 2003 and made comparisons more favorable.

    • $2 a share for the quarter...wow.

    • Yeah, there is no reason for the bondholders to vote no (to force liquidation, or to delay the process).

      Regarding the price of UHALQ, it really depends on supply and demand. I think it should be valued at $30+, just based on asset value (with tax deducted). The value of the $2 billion real estate should increase at minimum 3% per year (that would translate into price doubling in about 20 years), so even at 0 cash flow, the value of UHALQ should go up by $60 million per year. After 20 years (of hypothetical zero cash flow), the market value of RE should increase by $2 billion, and the stock price should go up by $100 - capital gains tax (at liquidation). That is an increase from $30 to $110 (assuming 20% capital gains tax rate).

      My best guess is, the cash flow for 2004 and beyond should be minimum $2 per share in a year. Earning per share should be $1+ per share.

      Unfortunately, the institutions cannot get in or out easily, and that makes the stock illiquid for the insiders.

      It would be good if Mark and Joe will sell a good percentage of their shares at present prices. That would increase the float.

    • I still think they still have a lot of issues concering the IRS, SAC and their insurance subs they have yet to deal with.

      They need to float some new notes and I'll be quite curious to hear of the yield talk there.

 
UHAL
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