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Cascade Bancorp Message Board

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  • CJL72 CJL72 Jan 21, 2010 4:08 PM Flag

    Book Value is $3.32/share

    (Note: Yahoo Finance Summary reports Price Target of .83 (Bank is located in Oregon), disregard, and see below)

    When I loaded this into my proprietary software module, it painted a very interesting picture…Strategic Plan based on Customer Relationship and Interest Rate / Liquidity Risk Management…

    Scheduled @ maximum impairment of 159.6M, (Discounts applied to OREO & PPE), and use of Net Core Earning Assets and Costing Liabilities:

    Deflationary Balance Sheet: (156M), including enterprise components: (61M)

    Shares Outstanding: 28.07M

    Produces an Enterprise Factor: (2.19)

    Price Target: .57

    Price to Enterprise Factor: (.26)

    Key Transactional Components: REO Proceeds, Brokered Deposits, PLL, Equity Change, FHLB Advances, One Major Troubled Asset Restructure [11.321M]:

    Produces a Price Target to Above Components: (.35_7_83)

    Not a bad entry spot, I like it…. 57 Cents, Lending Activity / MBS Collar

    In addition, Balance Sheet and important P&L items are measured further to produce a Subtotal per Shares O/S: 4.09, with a primary Metric to Price Target: 2.34

    Summary: (165) (6) (17), Price to Net Core Sales (+94M): .16, Price to Net Core Book (+3.96M): 4.04

    Deflationary Scenario / Influx of Cash due to Decrease in Loans 185.358M, Increase in Deposits 48.354M or 80% of Cash Change, of course accompanied by a decrease in NII of 17.42M.
    I.e.; Decrease Loan Originations and increased Charge-offs of 31.3M

    Increase to Cash is sitting in Overnight Cash or Other FI Deposits, observing interest rate scenario while implementing a new Lending / MBS activity plan. Overnight Cash went from 162K to 304.015M.

    Key Point: Bank has implemented a strategic customer lending program, that included “select” loan sales and “select” loan participations as well as non-renewal of mainly transaction only loans where the Company does not consider itself to be the customer’s primary bank based upon the overall balance of its banking and deposit relationship with the customer.

    Sell as in look for price entry.

    One more thing, 1.0108 Picture(s) always offsets 100.67 Hot Air Uttered Words.

 
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