If you bought SKNN.OB in the last few months/weeks for a quick trade, today the stock changed. With the long awaited arrival of the PR, the Trade is now Past... I think this explains why the stock has been modestly up today because those holders who were in for the bump/pop/trade sold when they didn't see one immediately, and still may sell in the coming days as the stock no longer has a reason to rise on no news & hype. SKNN is now a real stock which will trade on EPS and Sales very very soon. Investors are counting on both paying off.
It's my hope that the stock adjusts as the traders exit in the coming days and the investors may get a chance to either ride the stock up as liquidity dries up (best case) or add to their position as more traders start dropping shares into the market (Worst Case).
In either event, the shoes are real and they will be in stores in the next few days. What counts now are the following:
1- Media Acceptance/ Reviews- This will be the 1st impact
2- Shoe owner reviews- I am among those who preordered and will post my own review to this site in the coming days and my thoughts on the quality/execution/comfort/style
3- Sales- At the end of the day, investors will buy more when the stock is lower than today's close and hold until their highside targets are met, either $5~$45, pick your timeframe, investors are now holding the stock
Goodbye whiny where's the PR posters
Hopefully we all have the patience to wait this one out, the gall to buy on dips below $1.75, and the wisdom to profit in the end as we all believe sales will be there at the end of the day to make this investment pay off.
Your candor is refreshing. But you are well above my investing abilities so cannot even begin to comment on your strategies. It does appear they are well considered and from your tone pretty successful.
I have been kicking around and trying to learn since last year. I have income property investments and wanted to diversify into other investments. I opened up a 10k account with scottrade with expendable money and was determined to learn investing. Thought it was simple but I sure was wrong, and being wrong is expensive. Chalked it up to learning.
Essentially I wanted to invest money from my house used by my daughter in college. Rather than off campus costs I chose to buy a house for her and 4 other students. My idea was to take the semester rents, I charged full rent due at the beginning of each semester, and invest the bulk of the rent money. I get 8k each semester. Rather than leaving this to slowly pay off monthly expenses in a low interest account I could take about 4 or 5 k and make it work for me.
I've listened to all the talking heads, CNBC etc. Devoured all the books, Graham to Cramer, listened to all advice from friends and relatives. Probably a similar story can be made by a lot of people. Not being shy I tried out all these different strategies, made a few bucks, lost a few. But learning all the time. Not to bore you, but through all of this I realized there is no short cuts. I gots to do the DD . Recently I have been focusing much more on risk rather than rewards. This has tempered my behavior and has given me better insight into my moves. Right now I'm mostly cash, but looking to do some value investing in some big caps, essentially so I don't have to worry about all the daily ups and downs risks of small and micros.
Welcome your input anytime, cranky or not. I'm very thick skinned (sorry) and don't take offense easily. Anytime I may be wrong headed please jump in. I'm sorry if my posts may sometimes appear to sway sentiment a bit, but I do demand clarity, the results are going to have to be dealt with by others.
i applaud you for that.
technical trading, in many instances, is superior to �fundamental speculating� any day. one point you can�t stress enough is the unknown. even if guidance were given�it�s still an unknown because you would be �investing� (I�ll use speculating instead of �investing� with quotes from now on) on the assumption that you�re not being lied to...to assume the numbers, accounts, projections, etc are accurate is na�ve. the most recent example being the switch to china production. anyone basing a fundi analysis after copiously studying the previous 10qs would be devastated because their whole thesis is now changed. whether lies, retooling or merely switching, etc�doesn�t matter�the fact that this sort of thing happens in any company, �blue chip� or penny, makes them all speculative IMO. speculating that the assumptions you�re making that management is telling you the truth about the various statements and projections and that business plans will be followed.
technical trading (speculative in nature) attempts to remove any fundi assumption or management guesswork and trade behind the money flow. a wise choice, and can certainly lead to profits.
I�m more risk tolerant with my stock portfolio. I use to trade on tech but found I missed too many big moves (maybe I�m just no that good at it)�I was then forced to migrate to options to leverage up�dangerous, but fun. (i.e. if the product does come out, you�ll likely be on the sidelines for the big jump, assuming the sell the news happened with the PR; however, if it doesn�t come out (looking more and more likely to be the case) you�ll be on the sidelines missing the big drop prepping for a nice entry once the mo mo takes hold again) so now I approach the subject as though everything is false and make my own assumptions based on the market, product, economy and understanding of consumer trends. I try to form a baseline �value�, then I form an opinion, establish a position consisting of 50% put bet, 50% trade, and play it out till I�m either proven wrong or proven right. I try to bring my cost as close to zero as I can by the time the bet gets ready to play out as I attempt to trade in and out of my trading shares numerous times before hand.
if the product comes out, I�ll probably wind up a victor�if not�I�ll have another stock cert in my �dead� Co portfolio.
I leave the investing for my business and mortgage derivative portfolio, and masquerade as a 49er speculating for gold with my stocks.
Good times�good luck to you�this week should, at the very least, prove interesting. I�m fully prepared to catch a beating�and more than a few laughs�.in which case I reserve the right to be cranky�lol
Wow. Had to put another pot of coffee on to help digest your last post.
I am just a "Lawnmower, you tell me by the way I walk." I don't contest your fundamental analysis at all. Actually I'll use it as reference, don't worry, it won't be to throw it back in your face if it turns false. I do understand there is a lot of unknowns and appreciate your efforts to fill in the blanks.
I was once told by a HVAC controls instructor how to trouble shoot. He said don't get caught up on all the spaghetti of wires and relays in the control panel when troubleshooting a problem. Start with what you already know, confirm its operation then move to the next known thing. So my perspective is not necessarily focusing on solving unknowns, but attempting to understand the known. By implementing this methodology it often occurs that the once seemingly overwhelmingly unknown becomes understood. It works, I use this method even today while instructing my staff through problems.
So my perspective, starting from the major known factor is, product. Well this product seems to morph every few months. It might be interesting to apply fundamental calculations to project 2008/09 sales but it is impossible because past history shows we do not know what the product is. My methodology restricts me from starting here. So where do I start, management.
Known: series of missed product roll outs,
Missed annual, and quarterly reports
CFO, key figure changed without explanation
No PR or guidance, or arbitrarily stated
Change of production location, publicly unannounced
Also known is the stock jumped to over $3 pps earlier this year dropped to mid .80s then back over $2, on nothing but rumor and unbridled optimism, not one bit of fact.
Even a spec stock risk can be reduced by some basic DD. What is it that I'm betting on, Management? Shown to be unreliable at best, not a smart bet. Am I betting on momentum. Yes, best bet. Known, there 's a sucker born everyday. Since I can't use any fundamentals (unknown), technicals rule. Mine show not yet time to get my beak wet again. Certainly, not an investment.
I see the traders profiting on the swings while longs keep buying the dips. A remarkable and hypnotic dance. But I'm not watching the dance steps, I'm listening to the melody, which imperceptibly but distinctly leads the movements. By focusing on the band leader I reduce risk, spec becomes manageable.
Probably makes no sense but after seeing others investing methodology, what the hell!
I find that you are much above the average poster here. Your reply s to my posts certainly makes me drill down to the core of my methods. I certainly am beginning to understand and respect your views and guidance. Hopefully my glib ways will not mislead you to think I am not serious. I reflect deeply on my posts, and think about others post before I reply.
one can hardly deny the bumblings of management...and it should make one reflect.
however, i believe there is a real market for these shoes, which is why i continue to hold a 50/50 long / trading position.
i sold out of 1/4 at 2.15 while missing the top. I really felt we'd get a double top at 3.x, which failed to materialize. I now hold 20K shares with a cost around .97. if I sell the rest of my trading shares I�ll lower my cost all the more.
your 40 to 60 cent PPS is understandable and probably generous if your assumptions are no sales, but I think that fails to take into account the potentially rapid growth rate. some examples are seasoned growth companies trading anywhere from 5 to 10 times sales. while this number is ridiculous for a seasoned company it�s not altogether unrealistic for a budding growth story. sknn gave guidance back in jan of about 10MM in sales. this was based on 3Qs of sales. if we take that figure (totally without foundation, yes) and say they may get 12.5MM next year (2008) with 4Qs of sales times the 7.5 median sales multiple we get about a 2.3 dollar share price. plus or minus 30% flux will give you a range of 1.6 to 2.99. the low end of 5 x gives you a �value� of 1.53 with a 1.07 low and 2 high + or � 30% at ten times you get 3.06, 2.14 and 4 respectively. these are of course 08 figures, but discounting that by the WACC est 30% you get about $1.6 FV today (which assumes no meaningful sales in 07) plus or minus 30% sets a range of 1.2 to 2.08. I may be wishing and dreaming here, but I think 15MM to 20MM in 08 is fully achievable if they start to deliver a product.
Now obviously the assumption here is sales will materialize. This doesn�t account for a future PIPE that might come down the pike, if they can�t start generating sales to fund inv and R&D, which at this point is seems they�re planning on.
in the end this is what speculating with stocks is all about.