Not a chance that Oracle would buy Actuate this year. They have to digest Hyperion's technology first and they wouldn't gain much of a customer based by buying Actuate.
I can think of another other companies in the BI/analytics space that would be much more likely take-over targets. One is SPSS, which does predictive analytics. I own shares, up nearly 50% since I bought in the fall. I have another target in mind but I won't post until I buy shares. I'm waiting for the price to drop a bit.
I never said it would happen this year, nor does anyone ever have anything but a wild guess when they guess a buy-out could happen. I'm simply guessing Oracle makes sense based on the people involved. Pete is an ex-Oracleite for instance.
Hostile is better than friendly in this game. Look what almost happened with PSFT. That one could have gotten really expensive for Oracle and lucrative for the PSFT holders if Oracle had not been successful wooing a few of the large holders.