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Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., AŞ Message Board

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Dec 9, 2011 11:39 PM Flag

    The week that was

    Can you believe this week?

    We had a nice run up the week before, earnings was up over analysts forecasts by over 35%, and hitk is off by nearly 10% at one point? It's a good thing that they didn't beat the analysts by 50 or 100%, or hitk might have had to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection!!!!!

    And, at least imho, there was nothing on the cc that was negative. Yes, they said that, at one point, they were expecting some competition on flonase (any other answer would be very dumb for a variety of reasons), but they also said that they had stocked up on raw inventory for the spring season (which is reason alone to expect more time on this product, and I believe that there are several other reasons that no one is really poised to enter this market now).

    They never tell you their new products, but they led on that they were working on three other partnerships similar to the PAR partnership.

    They did say that there might be some more testing for the PAR partnership product, but that is a good 18 months away.

    And they did say that in a year they expect a steady string of fda approvals (although I don't trust them on this).

    They have done nothing but produce results. A year ago, I believe, the analyst were saying that they would do no better that 2.50 a share this year (less than the pending year), and we might well see $4 (and I think a few pennies more).

    Don't worry about the stock price this week. If they do 90 cents and 1.10 for the next two quarters (very doable in my mind), and show some potential for next year (a big if), they will resume a steady march to being a real player in this sector.

    And remember this - no insider selling. not anyone, the seltzers, peters, or directors. nothing. that speaks volumes.

    And I am going to make one small prediction. You will see a small rise this coming year or the next on flonase. Not $10, or 5, but maybe a couple. And that's not insignifcant - a couple of dollars could mean 20 million extra in profit a year.

    If this dips, without any negative news, under 32, buy.

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    • We need an honest thorough opinion by the present analysts.

      Why don't you think this stock is going to make $4/share. Are the flonase sales down? Are you just being cautious (not a really bad thing when you think about it).

      Do you think that flonase will not continue to generate $100 million in sales for the next few years? Why? Just the chance of competitors? Aren't there drugs of other generic companies that generate significant sales and profits and it isn't subject to skepticsm and discount due to suspected future competition.

      Are there real products in the future that are going to generate sales and profits. I know that hitk holds its cards close to the vest, but you must have some idea.

      Now, I know that we don't pay these analysts any money, and they don't have to give us nonpayers any opinions. but their opinions do drive the stock price, and we are entitled to something. Again, this isnt' IBM, or Apple, or some other huge company.

      I don't really know much, but I think that flonase is going to be a longterm staple for hitk. And I am hoping that they have a few more nice approvals in the next 2 years. But, unless there is something out there, hitk is definitly going to break $4/share.

      • 2 Replies to robinfamily1818
      • I said about three weeks ago that we needed an honest thorough opinion - and maybe we got one. After a little searching, I found this statement by our new analyst - Cannacord Genuity:

        Canaccord analyst, Randall Stanicky, said, "We think HITK shares can continue to grind higher on solid growth from the company’s high-barrier core business that we think brings attractive strategic value. P&L upside relative to our and Street expectations could come from (1) a stickier fluticasone opportunity than expected, (2) earlier Gx ASACOL launch or (3) business development productivity – all three possible."

        That is very interesting - (i) because I have said that with flonase there are some barriers that some may overlook (if that is what they are saying), (ii) I am surprised that they can think that flonase has more to go (a few dollars increase in price would really be a bonanza); (iii) I wonder where they get the ASCOL move up on the date from. Business productivity is always open, but that is very speculative.

        I am surprised that they are so agressive in a tenative market while others have pulled back. I would normally be skeptical, but at these prices we are still at a 10 - 13 pe ratio, very reasonable for a company with no real debt and a fair amount in the bank.

        I add this too, the nvld.ob board has a one poster that suggests that they have spoken to hitk and that zolpimist is doing better, and that hitk has "not thrown in the towel" yet (comments I find equivocal). It would be nice if it was generating some money - I think they are biding there time for the right moment - I am hoping that they are really really busy with the tusselcaps, and that will be a real winner this quarter.

        Congrats to all longs.

      • Wow, you are reading way, WAY too much into the share price. Right now, most small-caps that have reached fair value (HITK included) are just following the market/indices.

        Just buy on any major pullbacks is all, don't read or care about anything "analysts" say. HITK is solid, just trust me, and if you ever see a pull back below 35 while the SPX is still above 1180.00, GO LONG ALL IN, and I would scale in at any price below 37.