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Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., AŞ Message Board

  • qab88 qab88 Feb 22, 2012 2:21 AM Flag

    Wake up

    Hello Everyone here. Wake up.
    Did everyone sleep?? or out of country taking vacation??
    No news is Good news or bad news??
    Are we going to break the 45mark or the other way around??
    Is there any secret talking about a buy-out??
    Are there a few big drug going to be launch??
    It seems that this cow is going nowhere now and they are singing
    the "Let's go home song' again.
    One step forward ...3 steps backward.
    Market up...and I am down.
    Come on ...say friends

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    • I don't think you are crazy. I am quite concerned - flonase dropping, the lodrane time release delayed approval (which I don't find surprising, because I found their recent optimism surprising - although the tusselcaps may be helping a lot in the interim), and no new drugs on the immediate horizon - all lead me to think the price is getting ahead of itself.

      I still think we can do $4 a share this year (certainly $3.5 - 3.90 is quite reasonable). Next year? - unless we have a nice surprise (tusselcaps, zolpimist, or some other pending product), we are biding time to next year's product with PAR.

      If I see any insider selling, I agree. But I am a longterm holder. And I still think we might see over 100 in the next 3 years.

    • you are going to think I'm crazy Robin but I now have a short position here over $40. I think the insiders are going to start selling and there is going to be a ton of pressure on this stock in the next 6 months. The comps will be hard to beat across the board IMO. I will set a reasonable stop and roll the dice on this one.

    • I am a little pessimistic to, for a change. Competition (which is rarely good for a product approaching some monopoly circumstance) is not good for flonase. The lodrane time released product has been delayed again (surprise from the ecr group which has been most disappointing of late with lodrane and zolpimist). New products are 6 months to 18 months away.

      But the price is not doing badly the past few days. We are over 40 again. Maybe we are just attacting buyers because our market cap is over 500 million, but I can't really believe that.

      Maybe there is something out there we don't know. There have certainly been a lake of insider sales of late. We are biding our time to the earnings report and cc; but in the meantime something interesting is going on.

    • If the price has gone from the $20 range to $15, profit margins are probably down 25-50%.

    • Thanks for ruining my weekend.

      But it was expected.

      Thank you.

    • Confirmed yesterday that Wockhart is available through a secondary supplier. Priced with the others for now. HITK is on sale for $15.50 at this time.

    • Thanks for waking us up. After a bad day yesterday, we've had a nice recovery.

      But we still need to see some new approvals and sales. I think we are a few months off from any new approvals.

    • Thank you. Maybe we won't see any wockhardt for awhile - maybe it isn't as easy as it sounds to manufacture and sell flonase.

      The price could be better - but it could be a lot worse. The spring season should be kicking in soon - about 4 weeks.

      Thanks for the info.

    • no news is good news

      • 1 Reply to bbrodek
      • Did everyone sleep?? or out of country taking vacation?? - - - No. I have been itching to hear something but decided not to post anything because last time I commented on the quietness I was told that quietness is good - not that I agree with that, but I don't like too much criticism (but I will respond to you because you've been a little supportive).

        No news is Good news or bad news?? - - - I have no idea.

        Are we going to break the 45mark or the other way around?? - I have no idea. But without good news on the flonase front, and blow out earnings, or a new blockbuster drug application being approved, I think the former (I add that it is a small miracle that we broke 40 after the flonase competition was added).

        Is there any secret talking about a buy-out?? No. They are not interested in a buyout at this time. They are interested in making a nice market basket of products - but this is just my take on it/my speculation.

        Are there a few big drug going to be launch?? I don't think so. They said in a cc that they had a few products expected to be approved on an irregular basis for about a year (maybe less), and then expected a nice (my word) series of periodic approvals. I would point you to an earlier post of mine on Jan. 31 where I noted that they raised the $ market amount of pending applications from 1.0 billion to 1.5, although I dobt the increased portion is likely to be approved soon).

        We need to wait until the earnings report in early March. I expect nice numbers (just my speculation), but the real issue will be flonase - do they see any weakness. They could tell you that they have a blockbuster approval around the corner, but that is not their style.

        I add this - watch insider sales - there have been none - I don't know if there is a window to sell (I suspect there is), and if there is it may be the days after the announcement. Any selling might mean that there are some worries about the future, any lack of selling may mean continued confidence. I vote for the later right now, although it may be hard going for a few months.