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Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., Inc. Message Board

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Mar 1, 2012 7:08 AM Flag

    RBC conference 2012

    My report:

    First, David Seltzer seemed to be more upbeat today. He usually sounds like he's being interrogated. But today it sounded like he had sounded like he had a bounce in his step.

    On flonase, he said that the were one of three "dominant" suppliers, with a fourth recently entering (which we all knew here). And he said that there were about 30 million unit sales, and that hitk had about 30% of the market (which I then calculate at about 9 million units, which, if they gross $11 per unit, is still about $100 mill/year) - they also say that it is still growing (the entire market for flonase), and it is a wonderful product (something my pharma says). They don't seem too worried about the new competition, but I may be too optimistic.

    They were very happy about the approvals over the last year.

    They were touting subatex (sp?), the french product that has popped up on this board a couple of times, but says getting the product into the US is a problem - still they seemed optimistic because they thought it would be a "driver" in the year to come (they aren't bad about establishing good supply lines, so maybe there is some truth to it).

    They said that they have 100 agents out in the field now (that includes 30 from the tusselcaps deal).

    they said they have 20 products in development representing $4 billion in products, as opposed to the $3 billion in the press release of yesterday - I don't know if this is a mistake as it was $4 billion about a year ago, and recently came down to $3 billion a couple of months ago.

    They said it had been a slow cold and cough season - the warm weather was blamed - although they had hopes for a rush at the end.

    Peters came but didn't say anything.

    Nothing about zolpimist (surprise).

    No questions were asked at the end.

    My take - nothing special - but no warnings about flonase, slow cold/cough season, touting a product or tow, and being upbeat.

    We will have to bide our time until earnings for some questsions.

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    • don't give rxman a hard time. you were once very negative on hitk. he makes a reasonable argument. he may be wrong, but we are all wrong once in awhile.

      but I hope you are right tomorrow morning.

    • You may be right. The stock is a little ahead of itself (I felt the same way when it was 30 in 2006 or so, but failed to sell).

      But I remember a horse named Forego in the 1970's. I bet against him once, and learnt never to bet against him again. I don't know if hitk is another Forego, but its not doing badly.

    • I will stay short and see what happens. You may be saying I told you so and blowing your trumpet but I think the odds are in my favor. This stock is priced to perfection IMO and any little miss step and/or just meeting expectations will be punished. GLTY

    • Checked on whether their products in development targeted $3 billion in sales (as said in the press release Wednesday morning) or $4 billion as said in the RBC confererence - it is $3 billion.

      I add that, after thinking about it and really really trying to read between the lines, flonase sales may be ok for awhile. In addition to saying that they have 30% of a 30 million unit business, they gave some warning on cold sales being off (in a warm winter environment), but no such warning on flonase.

      Just my take - who really knows.

      • 1 Reply to robinfamily1818
      • Robin. You and I have followed HITK for some time (years). You just made my argument for being short. Cold season was pretty much a non event this year. Typically, and in years past this is their strongest Q. The comps are set really high from last year IMO and they may (probably will IMO) fall short in the Q. If they do this could be the start of the fall in share price. New competition for flonase going into peak season is not good either. They will inevitably loose some of that 30% market share that you site or take a hit on pricing. Lodrane delayed and it will IMO be longer than they say.... the FDA is fanatical about psuedo containing products and the manufacturing of Meth. I see you still mention Zolpimist but trust me it will not have a material impact on earning anytime soon. It will face reimbursement issues simply because the generic ambien is as cheap as a glass of water. All of these new approvals, while nice to think about and show some progress for you will do very little for earnings. generic keppra is a prime example. All this coupled with the fact that this company is now worth over 500 million in the market tells me it is time for a significant correction. It has now tested $43 three times. They will have to surprise me and everyone else with earnings to get it above that level IMO. Just wanted to explain my thoughts as you do and I'm not playing this for the long term like you are holding just for the headwinds that they currently face. GLTY

    • I guess we don't have to bide our time until the earings announcement, at least the way the stock is acting this morning. Maybe there was something said at the "breakout" portion (after their presentation, I believe that they take questions on a private basis).

 
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