Us longs sighed a breath of relief. Solid earnings, with products other than flonase and cosopt showing growth. I, for one, was really worried that we were going to have a horrid quarter - last quarter was bad, and I saw a further fall off for flonase because of the season and continued weakness. But management did what they said that they were going to do, and that gave the market some confidence, particularly in contrast to the critical comments of a week or so ago.
Going forward for the balance of the year, they have said that sales for the entire would be about the same as last year on a year on year basis, and they have done $110 mil so far, so that means they "should" do another 120 million for the balance of the year, which works out to 60 per quarter on average. The are not relying upon the mystery product to be launched in December, then Feb, is now April - something they are not delivering on (to my frustration). This is interesting, as it means that their other products are going to do well - if we can trust them to do what they say they will.
The next fiscal year will be interesting. They may have their "mystery product" running, which will give them at least a little lift. I had thought that the PAR partnership product was going into place in the Summer of 2013, but that too looks like it will be delayed - this would have brought in nice money - I think they would have realized about 50 million in sales in the first year. But they should start having some products come into play in 2013 in the latter half of the calendar year. And I am hoping that 2014 is a good year because health care will kick in.
What does that mean - we have a company that may just have stable earnings now - about 60 cents a quarter, or $2.00 to $3.00 a year - let's say $2.50, which may be conservative. That works out to less than 15 pe ratio. If that stays true for this year as a base, and then they really begin to add on it soon, they will press the envelope again - I really think generics is the place to be for the future, and they will amass a nice market basket of products.
Is it possible that the Oppenheimer Conference caused the rise. Did it have the effect of giving hitk some credibility because the conference is perceived as a reputable conference, and the invitation is considered a sign of respect?