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Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., AŞ Message Board

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Dec 23, 2012 8:04 PM Flag

    Year end cheer

    My best to all longs for a happy holiday (to the extent it hasn't past, and then I hope that you had a good holiday), and a happy and healthy new year.

    And I hope that the shorts don't lose too much this year, and also have a happy holiday and a healthy new year.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Perhaps I should have said "Year end CHILL".

      I understand that the flu season is relatively strong (unfortunate news for individuals, but good news for sellers of cold/flu remedies) - this is based upon in anecdotal evidence and what I remember seeing on news reports. To the extent that it matters, last year's season's was particularly mild.

      This bodes well for the present quarter (which ends on Jan. 31).

      There are three or four items of evidence pointing to a nice quarter: (i) the preceding, (ii) that the company was unable to ship $1 - 2 million in October due to the storm that was pushed into this quarter, (iii) they had some significant backlogs that they reported in the Dec cc, and (iv) they had a nice sale of flonase in Nov (nice in amount and in the timing - also noted in the Dec cc).

      This doesn't mean that they are going to have $1.00+/share profit or $75+ mill in sales for a blowout quarter. But it might mean 60 + million in sales or over 75 cents in profits - - very nice results for this time of year.

      Yes, we will have lower sales of flonase - but I think we might have a nice quarter.

      • 1 Reply to dcdcdc131313
      • And today there is an article in the NY Times about the flu cold season. It seems to be very very strong. Almost an epidemic.

        This will (unfortunately for those ill) to a strong quarter. I do think we will see a 60+ quarter with 75 cents.. It will give it some momentum. And, if they begin to have some product approvals in the next 3 months, they will begin to go on a roll.

        I do remember (I believe) that they said about a year ago, that they expected sporadic approvals for about a year, and then a steady number of approvals. We may be entering the "approval stage" in the next 12 months. Then we can see some real momentum.

    • I trust all had a good start to a happy and healthy new year.

      Last year I made some predictions for the year, and I was wrong. I said a low of about 29 (I was about right), a high of 65 (wrong!!!), and a close of 55 (wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!).

      In all due kindness to myself, I would say that I thought that flonase would not have any new competitors, and that probably cost hitk $10 - 20 million in profits.

      This year I will say a lose of 28, a high of 48, and a close of 42. I believe that they will have some positives such as efficiencies in production, and increase in some lines (such as uni dose). For them to do much better they must have some real new products - that is not the mystery product, which will be in April, but is targeting a 60 million (generic) market, which might produce about $15 million in sales (my speculation), which is a nice single, but not a home run. It could be the PAR partnership, but the July date for the waiver of patent protection is very speculative given the fda requirements (which might be good because it will prevent other competitors) - this could be a $50 - 100 million product, which would be a real nice building block.

      2014 might be different, because I do think they will begin to see a run of products in the next 12 - 18 months (again my speculation), and the health care will kick in (that could be worth a 10 - 20% in sales).

      I'm tempted to predict in 2014, but will back off.