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Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., Inc. Message Board

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Feb 27, 2013 3:05 PM Flag

    RBS Conference 2013

    I listened to the conference call. Couldn't hear the intro by the rbs rep, which is sometimes interesting. There were no questions (a brief opportunity was granted), which are also sometime revealing. And there was nothing on earnings or sales coming up (not really unexpected because they should be close to the vest as earnings will be announced soon), although they did say that they had 30% of the flonase market - somehow I thought they might have been up to 35%, but that's insignificant, and they did reconfirm that this market had grown 10% the last three years, unusual for a generic drug, inferring continued increases (they also didn't emphasize or suggest any recent hits from a new competitor).

    The only new thing was their review of developments of new drugs. In the last earnings cc, they said that they had 12 pending fda applications, representing $1.5 billion in sales. Today they said that a total of 15 representing $2.5 billion (of which 4 are partnerships with other companies). Last earnings cc, they said that they had an additional 20 projects in active development targeting $3 billion in sales, and today they said that they had 20 representing $3.8 billion of sales (of which 4 were partnerships representing $1.4 billion in sales). These are nice increases. Real nice increases. I would suggest that these applications, if all approved, could result in sales of between $400 million to $800 million. This could push this to a $1 billion sales company. And to me, that translates to a $250 stock. It might take 5 - 10 years, but that's a nice target.

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    • Yea the audio is horrible. I did catch him saying they had new contracts in January, not sure if this is anything to take a bite out of if using it to predict earnings, like I said the audio is horrible and I had trouble grabbing stuff.

      • 2 Replies to maros47
      • What I think you heard is that they took on 30 contract agents for ECR, adding to the 50 they already had. It would be very unusual for them lead on for sales for the pending quarter at this conference.

      • I was really complaining about the intro. Once, at the Needham conference, the introducer gave a nice introduction. I was just curious what they said in the intro, if anything. It sounded like to me that they kind fit hitk in between a couple of things and that there wasn't that much interest - no one prepared to ask any questions when given the opportunity. All the more reason to think that the earnings will be ok. I just want them to begin to get some of these new products on line. The PAR partnership product could add $50 - 100 million in sales (as they will get an initial good price), and nice profits. If you could get them to $300 million in sales and $4 in profits, then you could easily see 40 - 55 per share. I add that myl and act (formerly watson) have had 20 - 40% gains in the last 9 months, while hit has been stuck in this range. Good luck.

    • By the way, although Yahoo says March 4 for the earnings release, it may be a few days later. Last year it was on March 8th, and there was a leap year day added in then.

      • 1 Reply to robinfamily1818
      • Although we've had some nice action since the rbs conference, volume has been too low to be too excited about. Otherwise, I would have thought that some of the institutions and other buyers would have picked up on the numbers I cited above.

        We have to wait for earnings. It should be soon. And maybe they can indicate the news about the incoming allergy season and the PAR product and the "mystery product". By the way, on the mystery product who's entry has been steadily pushed back from late last year to April in the past cc's, is now into the "first quarter" on the next fiscal year (May, 2013). I did not mention that on my report of the rbs conf. Actually, the slide said April, but David Seltzer said first quarter. I don't think that its a very important change - it is only a 30 million drug at best, and maybe that means that they are busy now and they want a little bump to start off the new year.

 
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