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Amazon.com, Inc. Message Board

  • ckmb54 ckmb54 May 1, 2007 9:41 PM Flag

    A coming world stock liquidation, probably to be initiated in China,

    If you are short on AMZN read this article ###### Stock Crashes to Lead to Serious Recession
    By Chris Laird May 1 2007 10:51AM
    Excerps:First of all, I don�t think anyone would deny that the Shanghai stock market is in a hyper bubble. In the last two years, it has risen about 300%, and we have seen weeks this year where a million or more brokerage accounts were opened by native Chinese who are madly speculating in that market �a huge mania.

    Parallels to the Great Depression

    I find parallels to the onset of the great depression in the 1930, where the US was the fastest growing economy and manufacturing leader at the time, concurrent with a big stock bubble/mania here, that broke in 1929, and led to a massive world wide economic depression.

    In that scenario, it was the onset of massive stock crashes after bubbles that led to serious losses of money by the general population, and led to huge pullbacks in spending. In fact, that pullback was so severe that the US GDP then contracted 30% in a few years.

    I am broad brushing this analysis, but the theme for this portion is that the leading world economic growth engine of the time � the US � had stock crashes that led to a world economic depression.

    I find the same concept now appearing, but with China in the role of the emerging economic giant, instead of the US. China provides a great deal of world GDP growth now, as the US did in the 1920�s.

    It would not be a surprise, then, to see why we have now seen two instances this year alone, of Asian stock crashes that started with a crashing Chinese stock market. Again, I ask, how many hints does one need to believe that this scenario is a serious world financial risk for 07?

    Now, I cannot imagine the Chinese stock bubble, shown here, to be going along at a 1 or 2% gain each and every day, for the remainder of this year, can you?More..............http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/may012007.html

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