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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

  • stock100us stock100us Sep 11, 2007 5:05 PM Flag

    AMZN highly overvld, a stock scam

    Is Amazon stock anything more than a manipulated stock scam?

    AMZN�s Market Valuation.....$36bn
    Sales................................$10.7 bn
    Price/Sales.........................2.8
    Net Income.ttm...............$306ml
    Net Income Q....................78ml
    P/E....................................118
    Shares Outstndg................413ml

    SHORTFALL of investing $36bn in AMZN rather than in a 6% investment-

    $36bn invested at 6% WOULD RETURN $2.2 bn= $2,200,000,000
    AMZN�s Earnings ttm......................................................306,000,000

    Shortfall ($2.2bn - 306ml)............................................$1,894,000,000

    If this $36bn was invested @ 6% it would return 6 times what AMZN earns.

    Longs are paying more per share than the company will probably earn in its lifetime AMZN is valued at- $36 billion.
    (413,000,000 shares outstanding X $86/sh = $36 bn
    What does that mean to a outside shareholder? Will there ever be any Return on their Investment directly from AMZN?

    The company had a profit of $306 million for the last year last year, at that rate it would take 118 years to earn $36 bn.
    If RIMM had a net income of $1 bn per year it would still take 36 years to earn what the company is valued at, and that would be after tax dollars.

    What can an outside shareholder expect to receive from the company? Will they ever share in the profits? Can AMZN afford to pay a meaningful dividend? A 4% dividend would total over $1.4bn or about $3.4 per share. something the company could not afford. I know most longs don�t care about dividends, they are only interested in having a Greater Fool buy their shares

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    • "You mention reasons why Cisco went down (end of the growth of dot coms, etc)."

      To be more precise, the extinction of over 99% of them.

      "I wonder why all the experts were wrong back then?"

      Depends which experts you are referring to. Some bet on the competition and besides the experts who were wrong (it was the competition among the dotcoms that lost, not Amazon) many shorts tried to get Amazon investors to bet on those now extinct companies, as well, so why should investors trust the "judgement" of posters like those posters from that era any more now, than then when they tell us once again to bet against Amazon in favor of the "competitoin"?


      "It's great that you know the future..."

      I do? The only thing I know is that people who think margins are frozen forever at the trailing levels probably know much less about the future than I do and want to remain ignorant about the actual future outlook.

      "...and want to bet on something priced to more than perfection."

      Sure, it is, based on trailing data frozen at those levels. But depending on what your outlook for the future is, it may be underpriced, too. We're each entitled to our own opinions and ways of looking at the stock, aren't we?

    • nem, there were many other bubble valued stocks back then, CSCO is just a great example and there was so much written about it. Cisco was highly touted by many analysts (cramers) not a negative analysis was made. It had a similar P/E ratio back then, over 110.

      You mention reasons why Cisco went down (end of the growth of dot coms, etc). I wonder why all the experts were wrong back then? It's great that you know the future and want to bet on something priced to more than perfection.






      from the prev post-
      One trillion dollars.

      That's how much at least one analyst believes Cisco Systems Inc. will be worth in a few years--and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone to disagree.
      Click here to find out more!

      The San Jose-based networking behemoth's stock closed March 14 at $131.75 a share, slightly down from its March 10 one-year high of $141.88 (The entire Nasdaq slid 4 percent on March 14.)

      Thirty-seven investment banks recommend either a "buy" or a "strong buy." None recommend a "sell" or even a "hold."

    • You MF idiot , are you living in a cave? AMZN keeps growing and has no competition an its customers keep buying from AMZN no matter what A$$HOLE.

    • This ridiculously simplistic analysis, which any third grader could do, and has been regurgitated on this board for months, if not years, to justify shorting an "overvalued" stock will only cause you and others grief, as many previous Amazon short sellers, who have been reduced to penury, can sadly testify.

    • The Amazon seller came to about $1900 including shipping and adding tax on top of that (even if they don't currently charge tax).

      The price you quoted did not include tax for those buying in N.Y., let a lone shipping:

      $1677.00 Item price
      +$299.00 shipping
      +$140.45 sales tax for N.Y.
      __________
      $2116.45 <<<< $216.45 more expensive than Amazon seller--even w/ tx.

      (For those buying from outside of N.Y. it's still $76 more expensive than Amazon seller's price WITH TAX).

      * Orders shippped to New York will be subject to 8.375% sales TAX at checkout

      https://www.projectorexpo.com/shopaddtocart.asp?le

    • "Retail is hurting big time. Look at BBY CC RSH ODP BGP, etc."

      You listed some brick and mortar names. They're losing share to Amazon. And the example I gave tells you why. Amazon's prices are lower than Bestbuy.com (see below). And Borders', too, of course. So it is important to distinguish which "retailers" are the winners (Amazon) and which are the losers (those retailers losing buisness to Amazon).

      Samsung LNT4661F 46 Online shopping price comparions:

      (Prices including shipping-except where otherwise stated)
      Amazon Seller: $1706 (refurbished)
      Amazon Seller: $1766 (new)
      Amazon $1956 (in stock)
      ---------------------------
      pcvideoonline $1936 (not in stock) (slower shipping)
      pcvideoonline $2036 (not in stock) (faster shipping)
      Bestbuy.com $2249.99 (before shipping)

    • go to bestbuys dot com and look up any item and see that AMZN gets beaten by most of the retailers.

    • Besides the fact that when you go to their actual site's, click on shipping and find that the prices are actually HIGHER than Amazon, did you notice that all the lowest priced results have BAD ratings?

    • "nem
      There are 100s of suppliers selling the same items as AMZN, at lower prices. Here's some other examples cheaper than AMZN on the samsung unit.

      $1679, and they list many more with lower costs.

      http://www.bizrate.com/televisiontv/sams... "

      freeairsoar,

      Thanks for your replies. Your problem is that you are not clicking on the "Go to shopping site" links, and are just reading the prices from the search results. Once you go the actual site of that "lowest" price, for example, and click on "shipping cost" you can see the actual SHIPPED cost is higher than Amazon's seller.

      The prices I gave, and I'll include them again below, INCLUDE SHIPPING. I used results like the ones you found but also FOUND THE SHIPPING COST and added that into the prices I listed. For Amazon, too, taken from their site.

      Samsung LNT4661F 46 Online shopping price comparions:

      (Prices including shipping-except where otherwise stated)
      Amazon Seller: $1706 (refurbished)
      Amazon Seller: $1766 (new)
      Amazon $1956 (in stock)
      ---------------------------
      pcvideoonline $1936 (not in stock) (faster shipping)
      pcvideoonline $2036 (not in stock) (slower shipping)
      Bestbuy.com $2249.99 (before shipping)

    • nem
      There are 100s of suppliers selling the same items as AMZN, at lower prices. Here's some other examples cheaper than AMZN on the samsung unit.

      $1679, and they list many more with lower costs.

      http://www.bizrate.com/televisiontv/samsung-lnt4661f-46-in-lcd-tv--pid577631927/compareprices.html

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