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  • kishta100 kishta100 Jan 11, 2009 11:10 AM Flag

    Do not expect surprises

    Amazon already guided down when they reported earning in october, this was based on very poor october sales, best ever christmass indicate that revenue grew only in those four weeks and does not mean the full quarter, the week after christmass sale was also very poor, comscore will soon report on this.amzn 17-25 by october.

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    • And the debt holders, after holding the stock up long enough, got out as quickly as they could with the stock over $78 BUCKS, leaving this diluted POS still at outrageous prices in less grifty and smart money hands. They got out of their stock in my mind because the got a gift of being able to do so. Smart move by AMZN to retire the debt while the stock was high..

    • "Two-thirds or $266m was paid in cash."

      I'm shocked they fooled anyone into taking the shares.

    • > "Actually, they propped the stock up over the last conversion price so that they could pay in stock instead of cash"

      Two-thirds or $266m was paid in cash.

    • Actually, they propped the stock up over the last conversion price so that they could pay in stock instead of cash. As soon as the conversion was over, the stock collapsed.

    • Obviously, I'm talking to a wall.

      Ok, so Amazon used their "fake" FCF to retire $1.4B in debt and repurchase $500m in stock.

      They will have another $1B+ in "fake" FCF for 2008 and also for the 12-month period ending Q1 2009. Given they spent $300m to retire debt, Amazon should have roughly $3B in cash after Q1 2009.

      And in each successive year, Amazon will continue to generate their ever increasing "fake" annual FCF. Since long-term debt is almost entirely gone, they won't be able to repurchase debt and be limited to repurchasing stock.

      And while that's going on, you can continue to point out that Amazon's AP is growing along with their revenues as it would for any other retailer.
      (Although, those other retailers don't grow their cash, but who cares.)

    • Your "FCF" comes from holding cash from one Q and paying bills in the next Q.

      From AMZN/s Statement of Cash Flow (not called a Statement of FCF)

      Changes In Liabilities Quarter ended

      Increase (decrease)in Liab-

      ttl..... $643

      Change In Cash and Cash Equivalents Q/E

      above shows large increase in cash, until they paid bills.

      What you are calling FCF is not Free Cash Flow, how is it free if it has to be used to pay bills.

      Large increase of
      Liabilities at Dec 31-


      2006... 3.9



      2003... 3.2

      2002... 3.3

    • net you said-
      ...Total free cash flow for the last 6 years ending Dec 31 was $3,155m...

      You show the "FCF" for the past 6 yrs as $3.2bn, why are the profits only $1.5bn for the past 6 yrs?

      Look at the Cash Flow for the 4 periods ended 9/30/08- very little cash flow. Large cash flow for the Dec Quarter, but it was negative over $1bn after they paid their 12/31/07 bills.

      What you are calling FCF is not Free Cash Flow

      Annual Net Inc, y/e

      Dec 31,






      Net income for 6 yrs......$1.5bn

      Total Debt -

      Years Ended


      2006... 3.9



      2003... 3.2

      2002... 3.3

    • > "I love it when frauds say "retire debt" instead of .... WE PAID OUR BILLS !!!!"

      I know you're a deranged loonatic, but for other people's benefit, I'll point them to the long-term debt line on the balance sheet.

      Long-term debt
      2008 Q3 = $393m
      2007 Q4 = $1282m

      About $600m of the debt was converted into shares at $78/share at the debt holders discretion.

      The remaining amount of about $300m was paid to debt holders in cash.

      The once "crushing" long-term debt which at one point was almost $2.3B is now almost gone.

    • > "They don't repurchase their stock, please provide support for your assertions, which are ludicrous."

      When have I posted anything that wasn't true?

      In 2006 and 2007, they spent a total of $500m to repurchase stock. (In 2008, they concentrated on retiring debt.)

      "SEATTLE (BUSINESS WIRE) Oct. 24, 2006, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) today announced financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2006. .... During the quarter, the Company repurchased 8 million shares, or $252 million under its previously announced authorization to repurchase up to $500 million of the Company's common stock."

      "SEATTLE (BUSINESS WIRE) April 24, 2007, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) today announced financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2007. .... During the quarter, the Company repurchased 6 million shares for $248 million."

    • > "His assertions are laughable."

      Are you still laughing?

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