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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

  • socallian socallian Oct 25, 2009 12:29 AM Flag

    Why Now?

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Kindle come out LAST FALL and Oprah even mentioned it as "one of her favorite new things".

    Why the big spike in sales, why didn't we see any hint of this in Q2 when earnings disappointed and the stock sold off?

    The iPhone was an instant hit for Apple, the Wii and instant hit for Sony...I just don't understand how something that's been on the market for over a year all of a sudden becomes "THE" thing to buy.

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    • > "Why the big spike in sales, why didn't we see any hint of this in Q2 when earnings disappointed and the stock sold off?"

      The spike in sales had nothing to do with Kindle. It was across the board in all categories and geographies. And Q2 earnings didn't disappoint. Amazon beat estimates even after paying a $51m settlement to ToysRus. Otherwise, Amazon would have had a big beat in Q2 as well.

      • 1 Reply to netmargin15
      • >> "Why the big spike in sales, why didn't we see any hint of this in Q2 when earnings disappointed and the stock sold off?"

        >The spike in sales had nothing to do with Kindle. It was across the board in all categories and geographies. And Q2 earnings didn't disappoint. Amazon beat estimates even after paying a $51m settlement to ToysRus. Otherwise, Amazon would have had a big beat in Q2 as well.
        ----------
        A good answer to timber who himself said at more than $120 and his hedges would be maxed out and he would be underwater. On what he himself called a MASSIVE short position.

        Yes, I've posted this more than several times prior to the 3Q ER.

        2Q09 NET INCOME GROWTH
        Amazon 83.8%
        Wal-mart 1.44%
        (* excluding $53 million non-cash gain in 2Q08 and $51 million settlement with Toys R Us in 2Q09)

        But most shorts didn't get to read this warning (timber and others keep saying to put posters who don't toe the idiot short line on ignore) to them that in the subsequent quarter, 3Q09, when there would be no one-time settlement expense, that Amazon was likely to have another huge high double digit earnings gain.

        Others kept citing all the negative general consumer items or UPS as negatives but failed to put those items into the bigger picture context of all the positive ongoing elements such as the shift of the more complacent brick and mortar shoppers into bargain hunting online customers and improvements in selection and increases in units sold etc. which were also implicit in last quarter's over 80% gain.

        Sure, there were negatives as there always are. But they're offset by the obvious positives that are conveniently ignored once you've committed to a short position. If not for the negatives, Amazon might have had another 80% earnings gain this quarter instead of a more modest 69% gain. But how was this good news for shorts?

        They beat estimates by only 36% instead of 46% but again, how was that good news for shorts? How was this anything but bad news to timber and his "massive short" that went massively red over $120?

    • Amazon began to ship Kindle to major universities this quarter. Textbooks have their ebook version starting from this fall semester.

 
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