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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

  • timberlane_99 timberlane_99 Oct 28, 2009 1:05 PM Flag

    Sold Nov 120 puts

    Market is very oversold and will bounce very soon. I believe there is a chance AMZN will underperform, but I am going to lock in some high put premium here. 130 is still a very real possibility. I do not believe it will go above that.

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    • You may end up owing the stock at around 115.00.

    • "Also, I can't say I would do all these exact same trades if I was just walking into the stock now. I have certain existing positions that I need to protect"

      Right. It's a bitch when you have to scramble to protect equity.

    • Also, I can't say I would do all these exact same trades if I was just walking into the stock now. I have certain existing positions that I need to protect. If I just came to AMZN today, I don't think I'd be selling NOV 120 puts. Also, I would not have sold these puts if AMZN was lower. We are just awfully close to the all time high, and we are probably looking at a reversal in the naz soon.

      Ironically, AMZN will likely be an easier short at 115 than it is at 122.

    • Timber you are doing mistake

      I agree that the chart show strong momentum

      Marekt just started the correction from the big rally

      if tomorrow macro data is not good market will crash 3%-5%

      we all know that no recovery
      we all know that market is to high

      you are doing it early

    • "Why do you believe AMZN caves if the NAZ goes up. Seems like AMZN is holding its gains quite nicely."

      A good trader is obviously not going to be correct 100% of the time.

      A good trader will reverse strategy when the facts stare him in the face.

      Timber reversed his position when he saw AMZN tracking Nasdaq uptrend and sold puts for new trade.

      A good trader remains flexible at all times

    • "Why do you believe AMZN caves if the NAZ goes up. Seems like AMZN is holding its gains quite nicely."

      As a contrarian play. If I told you the naz would be down 44 pts today, what would you have thought AMZN would be down? Now if I tell you the market will be up 44 pts tomorrow, what do you think AMZN will be up?

      When stocks are weak, money flocks into the few "safe harbor" stocks. When stocks are strong, the gains are more widespread, and there is a lower concentration of $ in those few "safe" stocks. Also, sellers usually sell on strength. If the market is positive, I believe that will bring some sellers out of the woodwork. AMZN normally has very little real volume, and any substantial size sellers (1mil+) will take the stock down.

    • Timber is a proud man. This is as close as to make him say "I am sorry to short AMZN at $95."

      This is an intervention. It takes efforts of the group but we finally make him admit he is wrong.

    • Yes, I'm using optionspain, and there is some difference between max and current pain. I have not found it to be very accurate predictor of the price at opex, but I still look at it.

    • Max pain is useless.

    • "Max pain is still around 105 to 110 for November, if that means anything."

      Do you get your Max Pain numbers from optionspain.com?

      Have you tried Current Pain? The numbers are often different, but they have a charge for the data. I tried it one month. Not sure how helpful it is? None of the stocks I was trading landed on the Max Pain or Current Pain.

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