I think the possibility for amzn go back 115 at OE is fairly low now. 120 looks more likely.
this is exactly the play book MM use every time. Glad they haven't change much. the bear trap last week to hold to around 116 to 118, and now kill all the new shorts. never getting old.
And now it's 7.40, with a good chunk of that being options premium that is going to zero in 2 weeks. Unless you think it closes in 2 weeks above 127 it's still a good trade. Maybe it will, I don't know.
I sold more 125 puts today, bad timing, as usual. Tried to sell the 120s yesterday at the close and my order didn't get filled. So I'm done trading until the week of opex. I'll take a small loss if we close above 130, still hoping for a close below 120.
Any unexpected event could ruin your plan. And I think MM can no longer control the price under the tight range. This is as good as they can get. NASDAQ gain slipping from 20 to 14 today should be a red herring.
actually, looks to me that MM has the full control again.
Of course if Ben throw you a curve ball this afternoon by either announcing QE 2.0 for another 1 trillion, or raise the rate, all the bets are off.
"wow, i really see 93-94 at most by expiration, 99-101 by friday."
Not even the slightest chance in hell. If you really believe this then you have no idea what you are doing.
" if you see a close below 116 today, i'd definately suggest to take the small loss before it becomes a major one in just days "
That's looking like a good trade.
I rolled some of my short Nov 120 puts down to Nov 115 yesterday morning when it looked like the indexes were breaking below support, which turned out to be a mistake. Also covered 20% of my short stock position at 118.30 yesterday afternoon after the successful retest of the lows. Didn't get the bounce I expected so I re-shorted today at 118.95.
AMZN looks weak today and I still think it could drop to around 111 and close Nov opex around 115. With no news and the Xmas season ahead, I'm betting it trades between 110 to 125 until January. Just my guess, which might be wildly wrong.
"AMZN looks weak today and I still think it could drop to around 111 and close Nov opex around 115."
That is my ideal scenario.
"With no news and the Xmas season ahead, I'm betting it trades between 110 to 125 until January. Just my guess, which might be wildly wrong."