This means down. QE2 ends in June, and markets start discounting 6 months ahead. When QE2 ends, there will be no QE3 unless economy collapses. So, market falls either way--no QE3, down; QE3 because of economic collapse, market down.
I would say 10,500 if not lower. The econ is weakening again. Bad news for retail. On CNBC yesterday, an analyst who has correc tly called all the market turns in the last few years said the next big move is down.