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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

  • theguru_onstocks theguru_onstocks Jul 30, 2011 10:30 AM Flag

    Barron's Article

    Too brief.

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    • LOL! I remember every one of Barron's article about AMZN was bearish or bashing like mad when AMZN was below $25, $60, $91, etc; and every time it (i.e., Barron's) had a bearish piece AMZN went up. Now it (i.e., Barron) is convinced only sales matters and become bullish, blahblah.

    • your actually right, that was analysts fawning about earnings growth, while not touch on why estimates were walked down alot this year and expectation were /are not being reached,yet were in a new investment cycle with over 100 multiple. reason = pumptards. Barron's should be ashamed of not mentioning more detail on the other side. rec overbought 100 multiple stocks

      • 1 Reply to im_too_hipp
      • I've not seen the article, so pure speculation here. But, IMHO: Its not a question of shame vs. pride etc. emotions. Its a primal question of survival. As a well-honed (and tacitly understood) general rule of behavior, you never openly point a finger at the source of a river-stream from where your paycheck emerges! Nothing surprising! The only thing mildly surprizing is the abundance of financial-idiots who follow the herd in a momentum-frenzy tantamount to tulip-mania times here!

    • Nope - he bought a bubble. Just like he did in 2000. And it will end up the same way, too.

    • I never said Amazon would ever have a monopoly on anything. What I said is their market share is increasing, but it won't keep increasing, it's can't. I said it will increase until it stops increasing. Amazon will never be selling ALL the books. Their share of the book market has increased for years, but eventually it will level out.

      Is English your first language?

    • "Nope - he bought a bubble. Just like he did in 2000."

      He did? Don't know his cost basis but assuming it was $70, the average price for a 12 month period leading up to that, he's tripled his money. Better than the losses you've racked up so far.

      "And it will end up the same way, too."

      The same way would be a $150 gain (see above) per share, vastly superior to your $50 per share loss so far on your short. It could only end up the same way (a 215% gain) if the stock price goes over $420. How is that share price anything but horrible, horrible, terrible, for someone like you who shorted from $180? Multiple margin calls?

    • "loses 60% in value."

      Isn't that what some short does when he shorts from $180 and stays short near $230 and higher on his way to realizing a 60% loss and more? What religion is that?

      If you saw a certain stock lose 60% for short periods of time (weeks or months) and gain 500% multiple times and stay near those higher levels for much longer periods of time (years) and read the failure rates of market timers the smart thing to do would be just to stay long. That religion is called just being smart.

      The oppositie religion is called just being dumb, it's what you shorts practice. Shorting a stock that you claim is always manipulated against you and doesn't obey the laws of the valuation model and efficient markets in the way you think it should.

    • Yes, and from what you said (that it would be like 2000) you expect the "same" thing to happen which was that someone who bought at the avg. 2000 price of 70 would have more than tripled his money. If he bought at 130 then your "same" thing equates to a price of 420.

      Now, if you mean it WON'T be like 2000 then that is a whole different matter, but you have to make up your mind.

    • Ok, I will. I don't believe this, I'm just showing shorts that I can argue their position better than they can.

      People, the stock market reacts strongly to all kinds of negative events, such as natural catastrophies, political upheavals, monetary crises. We're due for a "black swan" that will send the market tumbling, AMZN with it. In fact, it's virtually inevitable. We don't know when it will happen, the next 911, the next credit crisis. If you just short AMZN every month, you may lose over and over, but when you hit it will make up for all the loses plus a lot.

      To invest in AMZN is to invest in Jeff Bezos, you pay a huge "CEO" premium with AMZN. Jeff has shown he can get the job done, but is he really focused? Is he bored with Amazon and really focused on his 10,000 year clock and space exploration? These endeavors are separate from Amazon. Even if you watch every you-tube video and read every letter to the stockholders he's written, do you really know him? I suspect he's not like Sam Walton, who wanted to control as much of retail as he could by any means necessart.

      Jeff is now facing competition from the big boys, namely Steve Jobs. Publishing and ebooks could go the way of the Radio Shack "TRS80" computer. They had the market at one time, what happened? They had to face the big boys, and they fell short. Walmart has made great advances in their internet presence, their "ship to store" feature could trump Amazon's "ship to you", because they can implememt it at low cost, unlike Amazon.

      When Jeff decides he needs to fund some high cost project that costs more than he has in his pocket, he'll dump it on the market, and when he does, the price will surely fall, and likely tumble, because the "CEO" premium will have lost it's luster, and you, poor long, will pay the price.

      Ok, how was that?

    • <There will come a time when Amazon has all the market share it's going to get, and that's when they'll focus on profit>

      Let me re-phrase that for you. There will come a time when Amazon is no longer gaining market share, and that's when whey'll focus on profit.

      They're not going to get ALL the market share of anything, but there will come a time when they have all the market share they're going to get.

    • <There will come a time when Amazon has all the market share it's going to get, and that's when they'll focus on profit>

      All market share of what?

      Selling all books?---Amazon can't control all the publishers, nor the authors.

      Selling all kitchen and home cookware or appliances---Amazon can't control the manufactures

      Selling all spices, tea, or foods and juice?---Amazon certainly can't compete with Whole Foods stores

      The ONLY thing that Amazon does able to have the exclusive selling right is its Kindle---but few people are interested in it.

      Tell me how Amazon is going to have ALL the market share of anything else?

      Apple may be able to have almost all the market shares for something, because Apple owns the technology of that something; but Amazon just sells other companies's goods that could be sold on any site in the country or the world, any store in the country or world, or any store plus the store's own site in the country or world.

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