It's hard to believe that you think "there's a good chance that AMZN will be close to disappearing" in 2-3 quarters. Looking at Jan 2013 puts, I see the most open interest at strike $120. The ask for those options, so for $1000 you could buy 100. If AMZN is under $20 in Jan 2013, you'd make $9,000. So why not do it? Perhaps you already have. Why don't you share your position with us? If you just post that you believe it's going to $20 in 15 months, and you're buying puts, I'd reply that I disagree, but good luck to you.
I try to imagine a senario where that could happen. I suppose Amazon could start doing everything wrong, even though up to now they've done everything right. Then after a year Jeff announces that he's just not focused, he's too interested in his Clock and space travel, so he's leaving the company and turning it over to someone else who will be totally focused. Then Jeff could casually sell his shares and bank his billions.
Or I suppose they could get sued and lose, but that would take years, and even if it did, they'd probably work out a payment plan (which is how they could collect the most money), and AMZN would likely recover.
It seems to me that most companies that "disappear", i.e. go broke, do so because they can't pay on the money they've borrowed. Amazon has no debt. I doubt if you really believe what you're posting.
Yes, they always look like earnings will be close to disappearing at the trough of an investment cycle. That is until the spending levels change and the shorts like you who tried to predict otherwise turn out time and time again to be the ones to disappear.
You incurred a loss of up to $50 a share so far so your "earnings" have more than disappeared and at a certain point of losses you will disappear yourself from these boards, too.