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  • dutchboyinvestor dutchboyinvestor Oct 13, 2011 12:45 AM Flag

    Growth Slowing

    Do not short until you have confirmed slower growth lower than 25%. As soon as slower growth confirmed , short and stay short as it will be a painful slog to normative valuation.

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    • Ok, you taught me a new word, normative. It means "of or pertaining to a norm, especially an assumed norm". The key word here is ASSUMED. AMZN is NOT a NORMAL stock, so you can't assume anything about it. You're comparing it with your grandfather's stock, and that's fine as long as you don't short it thinking it HAS to come down to normal. If you don't have a good understanding of why its at its current level, you'd best stay away from this stock, unless your goal is to lose all your money.

      • 1 Reply to brucetheharmonicaguy
      • Bruce:

        Assuming a stock will not adhere to standard valuation rules indefinitely is foolish. In reality, AMZN has hit the $10B threshold where the rules change and P/E multiples start to compress rapidly. When GOOG hit 750 in 2007, the market multiples were 2X what they are now. GOOG's price action for the past 4 years foreshadows AMZN (the difference being that GOOG created a cash machine. AMZN has not and is about to face stiff comp from GOOG on the enterprise cloud front).

        AMZN will be 160 within 3 months... and still over valued. Smart growth fund managers will be distributing AMZN and acquiring GOOG.

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