"Do you think from this point at around $208 by the end of October it will be closer to $275 or closer to your $100"
I think it will probably be about equal distance (between 180 and 200).
"The same as the odds if it getting to 275 by then."
Do you think from this point at around $208 by the end of October it will be closer to $275 or closer to your $100 which you say you know will happen. (And we all know how unreliable your "knowing" things has been in the past).
btw $275 was simply an example. I won't mind just $274.
"What if it is a 49.9% loss"
For that to happen the stock would have to be around $100. What do you feel is the likelihood of that happening. If it isn't very likely why would anyone worry about that? No more so that say getting on an airplane and fretting over whether it is going to crash or not.
If it is likely, he might want to hear about it. Roughly what % probability would you say it is, then?
Don't buy on margin and only have huge, huge gains. Not talking about today either. I mean when the stock is over $300 or $400, which ever wipes you out eventually. You think it won't get to a certain price but then you end up wrong, just as you thought it would go from $35 to $14 and it went over $240 instead before.
Then any recent buyer will get to average in at a much lower cost.
It would be similar to what has happened in the past. If the price went straight from 90 to 210, from a few years ago then he'd have a 133% gain today. But since the stock went from 90 to 35 first, if he cost averaged, he'd have many more shares, so hence a greater dollar amount in gains today, but also a 233% gain per share.
So losing over 49% for such a short time is great news to someone long and doesn't bother him at all. It excites and encourages him to buy more. If he's focused on the long term, that is, and not just one month. By short time, what I mean is it was under 90 for a few months. It was over 90 for several years after that.
You aren't very good at math.