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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

  • psusteelers1 psusteelers1 Jul 25, 2012 8:01 PM Flag

    Common sense tells me to buy puts on AMZN

    But that didn't work out too well last quarter. Do I do the same thing over again or just buy calls? I was convinced that AMZN would fall last quarter for all the same reasons mentioned today. Both calls and puts are very expensive implying a big move. I think that they are about 20% more expensive this quarter than last quarter.

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    • They were even more expensive with Chipotle, quarter after quarter. This time they paid off--BIG. Is lightening about to strike twice?

      • 1 Reply to ex.goldbug
      • I'm long some puts and I know there is some pretty good risk due to the law of the nitwits. Fundamental business performance is not always relivant to the beauty contest that determines stock price. Good stories can elevate the price and AMZN are master story tellers.

        I recall holding Puts in GM and they announceed a 38 billion dollar non-cash loss. The stock didn't tank right away. It held near its $38 high. It drifted lower and I made some money but the longs kept the faith and poured more money into a dead company. It was bankrupt a year later surviving off taxpayer money.

        Risk - reward I think I have made a good bet. We'll know pretty soon.

 
AMZN
324.91+1.23(+0.38%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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