I'm long some puts and I know there is some pretty good risk due to the law of the nitwits. Fundamental business performance is not always relivant to the beauty contest that determines stock price. Good stories can elevate the price and AMZN are master story tellers.
I recall holding Puts in GM and they announceed a 38 billion dollar non-cash loss. The stock didn't tank right away. It held near its $38 high. It drifted lower and I made some money but the longs kept the faith and poured more money into a dead company. It was bankrupt a year later surviving off taxpayer money.
Risk - reward I think I have made a good bet. We'll know pretty soon.
You are 100% correct. I listened to the AMZN conference call last quarter and the analysts were practically falling all over Bezos & company for such a great quarter. The analysts are so beholding of Bezos that they tossed only softball questions to AMZN and when AMZN just stonewalled on answers they profusely thanked them for taking the time to answer. What a joke! The analysts aren't even trying to kick the tires to see if anything is there. They are just along for the ride.