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  • rimmdiva rimmdiva Aug 16, 2012 4:49 PM Flag

    Goldman just said S&P would plunge.

    True, they didn't say which day it would happen, just that it would happen. This is their outlook regardless of Greece, et al.

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    • Lastly, I really doubt those Kiva robots are doing much for water heaters and appliances...

      They are useful for lower value density stuff of modest physical size. You know what is better for that? A warehouse club where everyone drives to you to pick it up.

      I'm telling you, when people really get some clarity with solid segmentation, the story (because that is EXACTLY what this is... a story) will fall apart.

    • Quite simply, the market has become about the bigger fish eating the smaller fish who see the prey and get there first. As I explained here last night, the market is in secular decline do to demographics. Money will keep coming out. It is no longer about REAL appreciation (though nominal might happen via printing).

      Now, it is about taking money from others. That means predatory algorithms drive people to capitulation before taking it down... which is why I play the way I do.

    • Tech: if you a familiar with Abt, then how can you explain why AMZN is going up?
      I just took a small hit on a bear call spread against my better judgement.
      I don't see the bear argument on AMZN.
      I saw it on CMG and most consumer electronic stocks.
      My initial experience with Amazon service was negative.
      Fraudulent third party products that were all returned or late delivery.
      But my recent experience has been very positive.
      Btw, I just got a Kitchen Aid stove top from Abt to replace the one I bought from Abt 28 years ago.

    • Basher: the building costs are being capitalized (averaged over time) like you said.
      What you dont realize is the multiplier effect these buildings have on earnings.
      Remember, they've got robots running around, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
      That's a 3 times multiplier right there. And those robots are not straight line capitalized and are over a shorter time period.
      Those robots also get no employee benefits to be expensed.

    • Edison:

      With all due respect, you are being wildly naive. I know the Michael Abt. It didn't get built in a day. And, it is one of the highest appliance turnover/density operations out there. Its service levels are what distinguish it. And, it tends to deal in premium/super premium product to wealthy customers. A very different niche and value proposition than Amazon...

      I own a Thermador stove. When it has issues (only once), I call Abt and KNOW its going to get handled well... People aren't going to feel the same way buying from an Amazon venturing into said offering. Sorry.

    • Tech: Abt has a fleet of trucks with their name on it for local delivery.
      They also have award winning installers.
      In fact they recently got into installing hot water heaters.
      I don't see why Amazon couldn't do the same thing.

    • You and I agree.
      I'm just looking for a cogent line of reasoning from "the other side."

    • Amazon cannot stop spending and its margins won't improve. Apple and Google are going to attack its eBooks business. WalMart will be on a low price campaign. Rackspace going after AWS (as is Google Cloud Engine) which means AMZN will have to continually upgrade servers/technology.

      LOOK AT CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS. AMZN EV is still 35X that -- which isn't impacted by the investments everyone is using as an excuse.... show me another mega cap anywhere near that. Most mega caps are below 8. Apple and Google are about 10.

      This is a fable that will be exposed as such soon enough.

    • Thank you for your economics lesson.
      What are the spending money on that is currently effecting earnings?
      Distribution centers?
      No, they are capitalized and will impact FUTURE earnings negatively.
      Feel free to be condescending if you like but it really doesn't explain how AMZN will substantially improve earnings.

    • Repeat after me: it's the revenue growth that matters.
      AMZN can always boost earnings by stop spending.
      That's what WMT just did and the stock dropped.

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