AMZN Forecast report tomorrow dips back toward 215 to 210
05:46 PM EDT, 10/25/2012 (MidnightTrader) -- Amazon.com (AMZN) declined in Thursday's after-hours trade after posting Q3 sales and guidance shy of Street estimates.
AMZN tumbled to an early after-hours low of 204.17 before popping higher to hold still negative levels between 224.81 and 218.06 - a range it stayed tight to through the rest of the evening. A pre-market open Friday may have legs in the 223 to 217 area. AMZN has been a steady session-to-session performer within our earnings database. The stock has compiled wider next-day closing levels in the regular session following 22 of its last 35 after-hours earnings events - or 63% of the time. The near-term performance leans toward narrowing, doing so in eight of the last 11 quarters. Of note on these last eight reversal moves - all but two have been recorded following an evening decline, a factor shorts should be wary of and where longs may want to consider that they may not be left out of the trade. Looking deeper into AMZN's data, it has seen an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 22 of the 35 quarters we've tracked. In 12 of those 22 quarters (55%), the stock has added to its after-hours declines in the following regular session. We're wary of the downside history, considering the near-term narrowing trend, but we suspect the weakness in AMZN shares holds through the early-going on Friday. Shorts may want to target a possible ceiling level at 224 to 220, a range that could see dips back toward 215 to 210