I have proven to myself that i can't predict the market on a time frame shorter than 3 months.
With that, i will make a short term prediction.
Although the market is wobbly and has spooked the bulls,
Most of this downturn is over.
Apple is within $30 of its 200 dma, which should hold.
We'll then get a Santa Claus rally.
There will be some pretty sharp bear market rallies that will wipe out the weak bears bears (like me).
I will use these rallies to get out of some long positions.
But in january the real slaughter will begin.
Sybil had the market crash predicted in Q3 / Q4 of this year, but bernanke opened up the check book, so now sybs got it out to q1 if next year... That doesnt mean momos cant lose their mojo circa nflx, gmcr et all.,..
Going to be hard to squeeze this one much and it may have already happened ah. Asian markets and QQQ futures both down. Okay report from apple and downgrades on the way for AMZN tomorrow in the am. 200 day @ 224, and solid retracment levels @ 205 - 210 range.
It's going to be a tough lesson for the predators who always try to prey upon and squeeze retail shorts when they big boys sell right through the squeeze attempt. They already distributed far more than people realize during the 6 month long vol squeeze. And, they rotated too. And all the traders are still saying "buy over valued stocks because the price action is good" and "sell undervalued stocks because the price action sucks" not realizing the big boys were leveraging the stupidity against them. The institutional longs are, like me, investors and buy low and sell high. By the time the performance chasers realize what has happened, LPs will be coming for redemption...