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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

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  • techstrategy techstrategy Nov 9, 2012 4:47 PM Flag

    Just bought 5K GRPN shares...

    I have many faults in this lifetime, but being stupid simply isn't one of them. You conflate short term moves with being right or wrong. It is the reason I make do so well over the intermediate to long term. Your little brain is too small to be able to comprehend how the system will evolve...

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    • Tech: Now I know you don't know what you are doing.
      I have inside knowledge (not inside information) from former
      GRPN salesmen that GRPN will be bankrupt within a year.
      They have no moat and the novelty is wearing off.
      Most discounts are on restaurants which will be negatively impacted by Obamacare.
      In fact, my favorite short is still CMG which will hit $80 and has
      Already outperformed AMZN on the downside.

      You are also wrong about INTC. I am a former INTC executive.
      The x86 franchise is in big trouble.
      The ARM is a superior processor.
      The only reason to stick with the x86 is Microsoft,
      And MSFT is talking about moving away from the x86.

      I still own some INTC but will br selling it on the Santa Claus rally.

      My favorite stock is AAPL, which might break to new highs
      Next Spring.
      I'll be selling that too if it does.

      The main reason the US is going into a recession is simply
      Lack of stimulus spending.
      Same thing happened after FDR got re-elected.
      I cant believe history is repeating, but it appears
      That so called conservatives dont understand economics.
      Balanced budgets do not stimulate the economy.
      Economic activity only happens when somebody produces something.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 2 Replies to edison20
      • Edison:

        I am normally nice and respectful, but I'm gonna have at you a little here. No ONE could be as bad as you are based upon all the calls you've made. You have a near 100% miss rate. The only ones you've gotten right, I've gotten right bigger and better. As to not knowing what I am doing, I'm up over 10X since fall 2009. Not many people can say that... And, I am extraordinarily well position for a huge gain over the next 12 months based upon the cycles that I've come to recognize.

        As to not knowing what I am doing... I outlined what would happen to NFLX with clarity well before it did -- the selection bias, the need to raise prices to handle content, the negative reaction, etc. I outlined all that would happen to GMCR -- gradual saturation, margin pressure from the shift in mix from proprietary to private label (even when manufacturing the KCups), etc). Most of you know I nailed slowing comp store sales and impact on future growth expansion from Cantina Bell on CMG. And, you will see that all my calls here on the inability to extract significant economic profit from the digital businesses (and thus the abject failure of the burning billions in cash on loss leading Kindle Fire platform) due to changing competitive set and competitive dynamics will prove true as well.

        An Intel executive? Seriously? Mid level? I know several of the higher level execs and have engaged with INTC on the cutting edge technology front for years... You seem to fail to appreciate the economic implications of being at 14nm trigate when others are working to get to 20nm, And, if you think Apple is going to risk its premium brand and price position by having TSMC manufacture a RISC architecture for MacBook line when the new INTC chips outperform on a power/performance basis (which is why INTC DOMINATES servers now and will make huge headway in mobile over the next 2 years), then you really don't get it. It is negotiation posturing... ARM had a huge lead in mobile because INTC focused purely on performance for too long. But, that dynamic is changing and fast (as servers show). Also, you seem to fail to understand what will become a growing domestic foundry thrust over the next decade (see articles on INTC as FPGA foundry). See Panetta's comments about the threat of certain foreign made telecommunications hardware. The threat is far more pervasive than that. The only domestic player with the real capacity to act as a secure foundry if from out friends at INTC, who have been investing in next gen capacity (the margin hit in Q4 is shuttering old faciities to upgrade to 14nm while demand is soft). Your hindsight is great. Your foresight is challenged...

        On GRPN, you got objective perspective from a laid off GRPN worker? Wow. Impressive. Again here, you simply do not get it. The economics of creating a marketplace for services are harder. The up front sales cost are significant, which is why FB, Living Social and Amazon have failed so miserably. Google MIGHT be able to clime that hurdle through economy of scope. But, GRPN dominates the local commerce, particularly service oriented niche. And, the customer maintenance cost structure is vastly different than the customer acquisition cost structure.

        Apple is the most dangerous of the great cash flow generating companies to hold. The margin threat as categories mature is very significant. Not only is there competition from Android phones (and MAYBE MSFT but I doubt it), there is a significantly reduced value proposition for upgrades once the first generation buyers saturates. My wife just switched from Android to Apple, but bought the 4S because the 5 just didn't offer anything materially better and she liked the smaller form factor. As such, FE earnings multiples are likely to overstate margins and profits.

        Enough for now... Good luck Edison. I don't operate on luck. And, I don't try to time the market. I invest on fundamentals. Time will prove me correct on AMZN, INTC and GRPN for that matter.

      • you proved that quite awhile here with your pump monkeying AMZN posts after it was significantly overbought, with a beyond a bubble valuation and had never been here before. I hope you owned AAAPL and got your #$%$ handed to you the last few weeks b/c you reek of fraud messages on everyting you say. As stated, where were you from 35 to 240 AMZN run? And then you came here to pump monkey on a stock that makes no money Whether it goes up is another story but pump monekying a stock with no earnings when you were never here in the first place for the run just plain reeks of fraud. Who knows what your real intentions are. You fraud.

 
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