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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

  • philandjoel1e philandjoel1e Nov 15, 2012 2:47 PM Flag

    Has anybody pulled the Q3 F-13 institutional holdingz reports yet?

    It will give a rear veiw look at what the major intitutional manipulatorz of this pig did in the way of dumping for qtr ending sept 30th? The reports (qtr ending + 45 days should be released for john q sheeple public consumption today or very soon.... Somebody save sybs some work and do something fvcken worth while.... Report findingz to the board.

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    • Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX) added Scamazon as of Sept 2012. This fund is a big holder of Scamazon @ Fidelity.

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=FCNTX+Holdings

      • 1 Reply to nje457
      • That explains things... I just looked at the NASDAQ website 9/30 institutional holders across all funds. Sounds like some FMR fund managers made goods decisions while others made very bad decisions...

        I understand different funds have different objectives, but any large long only holder that cannot materially reduce exposure without moving the market that did not cut exposure at these prices given the macro risks and pathetic cash flow performance here is either incompetent or negligent IMHO...

        All the #$%$ analyst pumping aside, some pretty basic due diligence can cut through most all the crap -- For example, operating cash flow as a percent of revenue has been declining for years and throughout this year. If Amazon was truly getting "leverage" on its investment (because that's always the argument excusing the #$%$ earnings and cash flow performance), the trend would be positive/increasing over time. But, instead everyone has intentionally ignored what really matters and has talked about #$%$ like gross margins (which are higher because 3rd party is essentially all margin even though the gross profit per item/unit sold is lower). How about ROIC? What has happened to that over the past 3 years? Just asking.

        There are MANY fundamental logical flaws and inconsistencies with the story here (above question about whether Amazon makes more gross profit per item sold by 3rd party or Amazon is one of many). I know the sell side analysts are essentially pumpers and do not ask hard questions (Gillis aside), but fund managers have a fiduciary obligation to know this stuff.

        The fact that the Toronto I mentioned earlier fund bought millions of shares at these prices in this environment with Amazon's cash balance and cash flow dropping is beyond me. I hope whoever did it has a minimum of the 5% of his/her personal wealth locked up in Amazon as well (matching the percentage of fund holdings). Because putting 5% of your fund into Amazon at these levels is nothing short of negligent IMHO. I literally cannot conceptualize what would motivate a fund to establish a NEW position with worth $1B... most of the large longs here have a much lower basis and get leverage on any recent purchases by driving the previously owned shares up. I would not want to be that fund manager when all this shakes out...

        Who knows. Maybe the shorts will be nice (short interest is at historically low levels here) and not make said fund feel real pain. Maybe the longs will defend the 200DMA and try to take it up once again. I doubt it. Not when REAL technology companies with huge cash, cash flow and net operating margins are trading at a little over 4.5x EBITDA like INTC. There are too many REAL tech stocks that are very cheap and offering huge growth potential in nominal USD terms over the long term to GAMBLE on AMZN growing into its valuation...

    • I did see that Goodman and Co Investment Council (GCIC) - not a major institution but a smaller, respected Canadian management firm - actually opened a new position in September with the purchase of $100 million of AMZN. It was their largest addition. I can't fathom why, but there you have it.

    • This iz a broad full of useless fvckin dopes... Somebody go out and do some goooodam homework ... This sheit iz on the SEC web site for q3 institutional filingz... You stupid douchbags... Does sybil have to do everything ? For chhhhrrrrrriiiiist sakes...

      • 1 Reply to philandjoel1e
      • Yes, you do. High level... FMR added. Capital World cut back hard. Toronto Dominion bought 4MM shares in the quarter (and all the funds that have been distributing heavily, especially since 10/1 greatly appreciate it). If you look at the chart, the heavy selling has all come since Oct 1. I don't think the 13Fs say all that much in this case... Let me know what else you find that is interesting...

        HOWEVER, if you look at INTC, you will see EVERY large holder accumulating. You'll also see GS wisely (because it sees the same long term rebalancing I do) DOUBLED its position in the quarter. I suspect it is adding far more. INTC will prove to be the best long for the next few years. Unlike AMZN, INTC's short interest is at all time highs and ripe for an epic melt up...

 
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