How can any institution long not be selling at this valuation? So many reaosns to sell - the economy, cap gains tax increases, and a FWD P/E of 136 with growth significantly slowing, net margin less than 1%, and current ratio that headed to wrong side of 1.0.
It is much worse than that. I said awhile ago that AMZN could find itself in serious trouble. What would happen to its economics on a Mideast related oil crisis? How would Amazon's economics change with respect to WalMart?
There is material risk that Amazon is vulnerable to a massive cash crunch if we had an oil shock. And NO ONE would provide the capital (debt or equity) to finance it because everyone would understand the flaws in the business model once the shock had happened...
"There is material risk that Amazon is vulnerable to a massive cash crunch if we had an oil shock. And NO ONE would provide the capital (debt or equity) to finance it because everyone would understand the flaws in the business model once the shock had happened"
are you sure? there's already a flaw in the business model with oil one of the cuprits and AMZN has rison for 4 straight qtr from 166 to 240 while the earnings have gone negative over those quarters In other words, the flaws are being completely over looked in the model for qtrs now. If a stock of a company keeps going up when it makes no money in anicpation of making some ahead that they have no clue to what it will be: then who knows what will bring change? They are now supporting this stock at almost it's highest share price ever and it's never been held to making money as a pressure less. That's AMZN stands today. I think alot thought that sales taxes or an earnings decline would affect the love for the shares but not only hasn't it: the stock continues to rally ahead of others. The ultimate head scatcher: scam or not.
And this ONE of the scenarios I was referring to when I said AMZN investors would eventually learn the significance of path dependence the hard way. The AMZN business model is fundamentally flawed given the probable evolution of cost drivers.
AND-Besides the poor fundamental picture, the technical picture look's worrisome for amzn. too, DTC short int. is near the lows of the year forget any huge squeeze plays! In fact most short's have long left the scene & just packed it in with frustration. We are also in overbought territory according to the stochastics. Then there is a little matter of a Very large double top forming the last 12+ month's. In fact The 10 year chart look's scary as hell too. Check it out. We get some disappointing political or macro economic new's the next 30- 60 days & a min 20+ point drop is in the cards IMO. Something more serious & we could easily see a test of that 165-180 area visited only about 1yr. ago! I realized years ago scamazone has a habit of defying gravity MOST of the time -Which leads me to believe any break when it comes will suprise most with just how far it does drop! Load up long at this time? Not even with your money "once" !!!