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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

  • philandjoel1e philandjoel1e Nov 28, 2012 9:18 PM Flag

    Here's why you dont hear emphasis on the producer:

    Because chinacom chinx and greater asia and do it faster and cheaper then the US and the greater Western world.

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    • When gamblers start rationalizing their losing bets, they know they've lost.

    • The sad part is bad accounting led companies to outsource a lot of the most financially attractive items to produce -- the cash cows. Back in the day of standard cost accounting, we allocated cost by labor hours, even when the real cost drivers were CapEx etc. That led assigning higher production cost on high volume items than was the case in reality. We outsourced "simple" / high volume items because emerging markets could do it more "cheaply", but the CapEx related costs didn't do away, making us "less competitive" on the remaining product lines, in turn leading to more outsourcing...

      We became producers of the low volume, high mix intensive product portfolio. We screwed ourselves trying to save the last dime and instead undermined our own cost competitiveness in many areas by taking on the higher relative overhead product portfolios...

      Having said that, we absolutely can compete, despite the incessant brainwashing to the contrary by WS (most of whom have never been in a plant that manufactures anything). Domestic chemicals manufacturers will be well positioned because of low natural gas prices. Intel still does kick everyone's butt (and will do so even more in the future as flows come into balance)... Shipping cost is going to continue growing as a share of the TCO (a significant reason I am short AMZN) of products and as it does, the balance will shift toward domestic production again...

      I really wish institutional longs would do the right thing and just sell through this... It only undermines trust in the market when they let predatory stop hunting algo funds squeeze shorts or put buyers, just like the long side. Stocks being valued on how they trade (function of float manipulation) rather than the value the companies create and capture (fundamentals) is what is ultimately chasing retail investors from the market... Benny B isn't the cause. The same short term mindset on WS that undermined our manufacturing base is...

      Having said that, I have complete conviction that Amazon will see 125 within a year and am prepared to ride through whatever comes my way between now and then...

      Now back to your regularly scheduled pumper taunting...

      • 1 Reply to techstrategy
      • It' comes form the Central Bank,. It's called easy money policies and those "flows" ended up in excess speculation in the tech bubble of 2000 and the housing market that collapsed in 2008. It starts with the Central Bank's esay money policies that fuel all the excess speculation. The money's got to go somewhere. And everytime Bernanke QE's to buy more paper slop on the Fed balance sheet, he's giving the banks capital to pay the speculative, quick buck games here. That printed money is more focused on making quick bucks now than being lent. The Fed now has uses no backing measures to make printing decsions: they just make judgements :and they are all so over the top Keynsian crackheads that they never reign in on their on policy of overdoing it in creating asset bubbles. Fun making them for Wallstreet but ultimately, completely destructive for the US and creates a huge wealth distortion toward the "paper engineering" crowd. If you ask me, this misallocation and the example of AMZN being chased to $ 100's share/ while making pennies all starts with Berannke. He makes Allen Greenspan look like inflation fighter Paul Volcker. In other workds, he's becomes a hedge fund money and enabler of these games over and over. Only when the bond market blows up like it did overseas while the Fed gets trapped with carrying huge balances of paper on thier blance sheet, paper they bought at nosebleed prices, wil we get back to financial sanity, and away from this Fed abuse of the system that's been going on for quite some time now. That's my view. Doesn't take rates rising too much anymore, and lower and lower spikes, to freak out the market as Berannke's balaance sheet has ballloned like AMZN's stock while making pennies. Coincidence? not a chance. Corrolated.

 
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