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  • techstrategy techstrategy Nov 30, 2012 8:59 AM Flag

    in short, there's a huge Corporate bond blowup ahead for any funds stupid enough to hold that paper at the minimal yields they bought it at

    Not true... Bondholders will get paid. They'll lose purchasing power in real terms, but it is the junior claimant of equity that will get crushed. All of the "bonds are expensive" talk ignores the ruthless competition to come. Even the "winners" will see profits and cash flow get whacked hard. The difference is Apple, Google, Microsoft and Intel have enough cash, cash flow and margin to get VERY aggressive on pricing and still weather the storm well (the first three could survive for years without revenue, the latter could slash all CapEx and beat everyone of cost manufacturing ONLY ARM designs and knock EVERYONE out while still maintaining cash flow).

    At the same time, the relative factor costs will be moving in a manner that is disadvantageous to Amazon's business model WHILE all retailers (and the Titans in Amazon's core business) are matching Amazon on price...

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