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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

  • im_too_hipp im_too_hipp Nov 30, 2012 8:46 AM Flag

    in short, there's a huge Corporate bond blowup ahead for any funds stupid enough to hold that paper at the minimal yields they bought it at

    USA gambling parlor economics with paper engineering. Amazing no lessons learned from 2008 game of the same nature.

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    • Not true... Bondholders will get paid. They'll lose purchasing power in real terms, but it is the junior claimant of equity that will get crushed. All of the "bonds are expensive" talk ignores the ruthless competition to come. Even the "winners" will see profits and cash flow get whacked hard. The difference is Apple, Google, Microsoft and Intel have enough cash, cash flow and margin to get VERY aggressive on pricing and still weather the storm well (the first three could survive for years without revenue, the latter could slash all CapEx and beat everyone of cost manufacturing ONLY ARM designs and knock EVERYONE out while still maintaining cash flow).

      At the same time, the relative factor costs will be moving in a manner that is disadvantageous to Amazon's business model WHILE all retailers (and the Titans in Amazon's core business) are matching Amazon on price...

      • 3 Replies to techstrategy
      • you say that and then say bond talk that they are expensive? which one is it? They are expensvie in that kind of ruthless competition ahead for profits. Expecially if you're scenario in AMZN plays out: That make buying the low yield stupid. You demand higher yield with profitablly challenged compnanies, not almost no yield. See what i mean?

      • All of the "bonds are expensive" talk well see if it's talk or what I claim it to be like heading to the housing bubble: mispricing based on over intervention of the Fed again to affect markets: it's failed to stop what comes from the result. I see that happening again you obviously don't.

      • I said that: I said they might get paid crap returns when the market rates explode the next view years, that would affect the price the bonds trade at when they were bought at sky high levels. Corportate bond of stuff trade daily. That's what I'm talking about: Stupid buy to get principal back then while rates explode and you are stuck holding them. That is what I said and true.

 
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