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  • techstrategy techstrategy Dec 7, 2012 10:53 PM Flag

    CRVIN, INTERACTIVEBROKERSUCKS, and GRUEN7 are the same shill


    It can be hard to keep perspective during a ridiculous move like this. That's why I always anchor on fundamentals and maintain long positions -- to #$%$ relative valuations and the sustainability of a move.

    I don't know if it is next week or next month, but Amazon's underlying economics are hosed. The Tech Titans led by Google (many of the senior execs are ex-McKinsey people, so I know how they think and have been able to predict its competitive responses pretty accurately) are going to inflict a LOT of pain on the "digital" side of Amazon. Google can beat Amazon on prices on everything cloud and Amazon will feel asymmetric pain (how are those AWS revenues going to look YOY with a 25% price cut and new competitors from all sides cutting into market share?). On the physical goods side, WMT and TGT are simply more efficient for many product categories. Amazon is literally destroying shareholder value daily with its excessive expansion and lack of focus. Books had a very different TCO. High end electronics had high value density (although price matching in retail and the collection of taxes has eliminated the consumer value proposition), but that play is largely saturated. Amazon has created selection biases all over the place (via stacked loss leaders) that will prove to be its undoing...

    I know you think I write too much, but I do it to help good investors who are short this stock to maintain perspective through the behavioral investing squeezes. Suffice it to say that I will be adding to my position should this continue to trend up next week. If there were any justice in this world, we'd wake up Monday morning with this back below the 200DMA at 220 and see margin calls all over the place for the speculative longs.

    The institutional longs seem to be afraid to do the right thing and just let these bubbles burst, but it would be the best thing for the market and for them long term. Until they let these so, capital will not come back into the market...

    Have a good weekend Sybs.

299.90+2.17(+0.73%)Dec 19 4:00 PMEST

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