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  • disfiguredskating disfiguredskating Jan 4, 2013 4:44 PM Flag


    I am not trying to start an argument. I am just trying to have a little fun. Here is my prediction for AMZN over the next few months.

    In the next 10 trading days AMZN breaks out to a new all time high on slightly greater than normal volume.

    Several trading days later it closes below 260.

    Right before earnings it trades back up to its all time high.

    Earnings are announced and it craters. The rest of the year it trades lower (see also: AAPL late 2011).

    AMZN will be down 40% at some point this year.

    One thing I strongly believe is that all high flyers eventually crater. They don't fade or trade flat...they crater. This one will too and it will be even harder than AAPL. Nobody wants to be left holding the bag on a stock where management doesn't care about investors or profits and spends endlessly on expansion for profits that will never come. You can walk on the edge of a razor for only so long. It is coming. It is just fun for me to guess when.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • aragre Jan 4, 2013 4:53 PM Flag

      Comparing apple at pe of 15 at its high with 20%+ growth and billions in profit and amazon at pe of 3000 with negative earnings growth and loss hardly makes you sound credible!
      But i agree that amazon is bound to take a big hit at some point!

    • Indeed, int the coming days we could see a breakout.... or it will just become a double top....

      I would say 60/40 for a final breakout..... if so I'll just increase my short position.....

      • 1 Reply to optionstrader008
      • Triple Top? They certainly will paint the tape for a breakout/all time high. Happening all over the place in this market on both the long and short side.

        Funny thing is that institutional longs could knockout all the speculators and ETF funds simply by rebalancing to reflect fundamentals, reducing their risk and making fat coin in the process. My sense is that they've distributed enough of the scams and accumulated enough of the real investments to make the move...

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