Just re-read the Credit Suisse Report from October - what a good laugh!
They lowered everything after that terrible call, but left their price target at $301. All of their estimates are now very reasonable - rev growth, margins, eps, opex, etc... Looks similar to my model. Total EPS from 2013 to 2017 (next 5 years) is $31.08 (EPS in 2017 is $11.14)... So, if you add up all EPS for the next 5 years, their price target is 100x times that (or 30x 2017 EPS)!!!! Just to place this in persepctive, Apple will make $48 in 2013 alone.
My point was that even an in upside majestical forecast from credit suise, it will take them 7 years to earn what apples earns in 1. This guy had $11 of EPS in 2017 ... it could be, who the F knows ... but even if you beleive that, how do you pay 30x 2017 EPS in your price target???? what a joke! You need to discount that $11 to todays $, if you apply a P/E of 30 in 2017, discount back by 30% per year. That $11.14 becomes $3.90 in 2013$, x30 multiple (3x apple) = $117. that is a little more like it.
Appreciate this summary. This makes me even convinced that AMZN will drop big. The slow seasons are coming up and the competition (TGT price matching, BBY, WMT, GOOG, AAPL etc). are more than willing to go toe-to-toe with AMZN.
BBY/WMT/TGT on retail
GOOG on clouds, tablets, phones.
AAPL on tablets, phones
Governments on taxes (US taxes are coming to every states, France, UK want their fair share of AMZN taxes).
AAPL fell out of favor. I had thought that AAPL and GOOGLE would have a 100-150 pts drop at one point last fall, but I never figure that AAPL would fall out of favor so quickly due to strategic concerns...