I have been watching on the side lines for AMZN for about a year now and believe the time is ripe to short Amazon. Here are a few of my reasons why.
1. Amazon moved into China. Alibaba does not like this. They also will IPO in 2013 and move into USA in a big way.
2. Of course the outstanding taxes bill everyone is pointing out.
3. Amazon runs on extremely thin margins. Just one tiny wrinkle in the logistics process via planes grounding, or fuel price jump or any other unforseen event will destroy their margins for a duration that could be disastrous.
4. Market disruptors. Amazon is riding a massive bubble, party due to analysts thinking they are the only player and a monopoly. They are good at what they do, however, they have encroached on quite a few big players - Walmart and the likes - who will be doing defensive offerings - likely in 2013. There are also the smaller more innovative disruptor who will show up.
5. Reality check. What can Amazon do to increase their margins to bring themselves close to a PE that any sane investor would be looking for.
6. Dominos. Once on of the cartel institutional players gets cold feet - the cards will be tumbling and Amazon will drop to a semi-normal price range.
300 is my #$%$ out price. I'll double down on shorts till 300 dollars and then give up saying the big boys out played me - and move on to another bet.