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  • stkguy stkguy Jan 18, 2013 7:16 PM Flag

    Q4 Earnings Announcement and stock reaction

    Full disclosure: I am short here (at 273) on the basis of AMZN's recent big run-up and the feeling/hope that they will stumble a little on revenue in Q4.If that happens, I see a 10-15 point drop possible.

    I agree with most of the analysis from people who are short, like tech (except the ramblings about the market being fixed, it's all a big plot,and AMZN falling to $100 by EOY; all delusional).

    My problem is I am unwilling.unable (unlike Sybs and tech) to hang onto a short position long-term. Too much risk and I am assuming AMZN will continue to roll for a long time before blowing up.

    I am certainly a little concerned about AMZN's strength here. I would have thought it would have continued to soften into earnings. The strength here does give me pause that a strong revenue quarter could happen.

    Any thoughts on the chances of AMZN falling short of the 22.3B they are expected to book in revenue for Q4? (I dont care about earnings since the market doesnt).

    Thanks for any thoughts and best of luck to all (especially shorts).

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    • One or 2 earnings ago, PCLN dropped 30% after hours ... pheeeww...

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Stkguy:

      I base nothing on the market being rigged. My $100 price target is based on actual fundamental analysis and an u derstanding of PROFIT DRIVERS as opposed to revenue. MOMO companies trade on revenue until they don t and then they get value as real businesses. That transition will happen in 2013. You cannot get to anything approaching 200 without herculean assumptions and risk of performance into 2017...

      The market is badly broken because of all the volatility selling. It has massively overextended in both directions. Momentum works until it doesn't...

      • 1 Reply to techstrategy
      • Uhhhhhhmmmmm, tech - You open up with :

        "I base nothing on the market being rigged. "

        Yet you directly observe a worthless pig that hasnt met earningz expectationz in 7 quarterz, and tcome the 30 th it will be 8 th, trading in the 270's. And then you close with:

        "The market is badly broken because of all the volatility selling. "

        Make up your mind. Are the markets fair and healthy, or are they broken and rigged.

        This Az your ditm (at least at the time you roll into them they were ditm and very expensive) put option leap strategy gets slaughtered year over year month over month.

        Which goez to directly to sybils argument:

        1. The market haz been rigged 'for an extended period of time' and continuez to be now more than ever absolutely fvck in rigged

        2. The blood of the Optionz crackheadz, even the userz of the good sheit (ditm puts), have driven theze pigz to absolute lofty levelz to kill optionz premoumz that will never ever be recovered. For az long az optionz are weaponized, crack headz will use them and destroy themselvez with collateral damage.

        Good luck tech, your optionz are about ready to get devoured by robots.

    • The problem with Amazon is it is so overvalued that if the market farts amazon ps will ,,,, and we are do for a really big fart.

    • Amzn is a retailer. It should be easy for them to make the revenue number. A big sale or discount will do the trick. It is puzzling to many investors that why the wall street gives such a premier to it. Imagine what the walmart share price would be if it would carry the amzn pe or p/s

      • 1 Reply to xxu0901
      • If sybil made kick ars pizza and sold it for 2 bux a pie with free delivery from main to texas, then sybs could make lots of revenue. Dont ya think?

        Actually amzn's model iz to buy the pizza from a pizza maker for 18 bux, and then sell it for 2 bux with free delivery and then pay tax. Go figure! Amzn doesnt make pizza, they dont make any thing. Its amzn dot BOMB. Isnt this tune a classic from the march 2000 era? Ahhhh yes, sybil lovez the oldiez.

    • "except the ramblings about the market being fixed, it's all a big plot,and AMZN falling to $100 by EOY; all delusional"

      Sadly, this iz the most accurate of all analysis. It iz precisely why amzn iz trading at theze levelz, why amzn will most likely print sub 100 by the end of 2013, why the s&p lost 60% of its 2007 highs, and why the s&p will lose 70% of where ever it tops out at beit from near theze current levelz to where ever it tops out at aaaaaaallllll the way down to a f-f-four hundred and fifty point print on the tape before the next crash wave iz complete.

691.36-7.60(-1.09%)Jun 27 4:00 PMEDT