nasdaq, I made a ton of money on the initial decline from $250s to $220 in put spreads late last year, plus have made good money recently in KKD. LNN, PKI and HLF calls (after it bottomed in $20s). Plenty of money to catch the plunge in Amazon when it happens sooner or later .Don't worry.
What chance to you give an after-hours decline followed by an immediate march back up the following day. That's been the pattern recently.
I feel very confident that they'll disappoint on eps. Magnitude of the decline will depend on how they do on rev. If they miss rev, watch out below.
Would love to know why you feel confident of a miss on EPS. I am assuming a beat on EPS. That was certainly what happened last year and the expectations have been guided down so low. As I posted earlier, I am guessing the stock price movement you mentioned (AH down, but right back up next day). This is a challenging short but I think there will be sub-250 opportunity if you are willing to wait as long as 3 months.